(Expansion) – The day after is here. The news of June 7: according to preliminary data, the president suffers a setback in the midterm elections, Morena loses the qualified majority, PAN and PRI take new vigor; The PRD registers a pyrrhic advance, PVEM, the Citizen Movement and the PT gain positions, the kid says goodbye.
If the trends continue, the opposition bloc to the so-called fourth transformation has reasons to celebrate because, although Andrés Manuel López Obrador will maintain the majority in Congress with his allies, it will be difficult for him to make constitutional changes and, thus, the second half of His tenure will face checks and balances.
However, for businessmen, the radicalization of the president will occur, regardless of the configuration of Congress. Yes, the opposition will bet on balances under the argument that better legislation will be passed through dialogue and negotiation. But, finally, the business bodies maintain that a harsher, acidic, aggressive version of Andrés Manuel López Obrador is coming.
The next battle in the political arena could occur in an eventual special session, but regardless of whether it takes place, the punishment vote against the president will not lead to a divided government, but rather to the hardening of the president, who will resort to vetoes. , decrees, and a radicalization against all those he describes as his enemies.
The business strategy to “coexist” with the so-called fourth transformation during the second half of government will unfold through two narratives. The first will have a conciliatory tone, emphatic on certain issues, but without jeopardizing the permanence of the private sector at the negotiating table. There, Carlos Salazar will take the lead. On the other hand, other business leaders will speak out more and confront the presidential narrative. Enoch Castellanos will be one of them.
It is a fact: intense weeks are coming, positions that will require on the part of the private sector a counterattack with solid arguments to try to defuse several bombs; among them, a plan that the ruling party has been simmering: the wealth tax.
In the framework of the conversations that will take place towards the 2022 Federal Revenue Law, the tax reform will include an analysis around the application of tax rates to fortunes and inheritances. Alfonso Ramírez Cuellar, who was the leader of Morena, placed the issue a few months ago in the national debate and the reactions (especially against) did not wait. By October, let no one be surprised, this thorny issue will return.
Simultaneously, the route of tagged money for next year will also be a source of contention. No one will question the social programs aimed at young people, pregnant women, older adults (in the end, they are a political spoil of all parties). The fires will take place in the heat of the discussions to provide resources (or suffocate) the autonomous bodies. By November, the carnage will come.
Thus, the first section of the second half of the so-called fourth transformation will be characterized by the tirade and the looming counterweights, will follow in the footsteps of old experiences where co-governance has been a curse. The business representations, in this context, will seek to reposition themselves and keep their guard against presidential attacks. The days of fury will continue.
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Whatever happens with the vote count for yesterday’s election, there is one element that we must all defend: democracy. It is right now that, after a black season of assassinations of candidates and a polarization sown by many political actors, democracy has to shine, which implies accepting the results. Today, talking about democracy as a necessity is imperative. Preventing democracy from being hurt is everyone’s obligation.
