Saturday left a curious grid, where many drivers aspire to score points and others to make a good result after achieving surprisingly good positions on the grid.
Six days of testing and two days of free practice and qualifying have left some clues as to what to expect at the Bahrain GP, but only on Sunday afternoon (local night) will fans really see how the new cars perform in a situation race and what kind of overtaking we will see.
The drivers have followed each other whenever they could to rehearse, but they have not done it in a train of cars where some use DRS , lap after lap, and having to manage parameters such as brake and engine temperature, not to mention the new tires.
In the past, following another car meant wearing down your tyres, and on the abrasive Bahrain International Circuit it remains to be seen how much punishment the tires take.
It will also be the first outing for the drivers in these cars, and the first time they’ve piled into the first corner with a full tank of fuel, adding even more weight to the heaviest Formula 1 cars we’ve ever seen.
So far in 2022 we have seen tire lockups time and time again, including in tests and quiet runs, and in racing it is likely to be even more common, which could leave drivers with damaged tires compromising their strategies.
To add to the fun, the race is expected to be a two-stop unless someone at the back of the grid risks going to one.
That opens up a variety of strategy options, and with the rules no longer obliging those who contested Q3 to go out on the tires they used in Q2, no one knows which option their rivals will freely choose.
“The degradation on this track is there, it’s part of the show,” Pirelli director Mario Isola told Motorsport.com after qualifying.
“That’s why I think we’ll have a two-stop race. And we’ll find out how much the new aero package is affecting the car at the rear. Honestly, it’s hard to predict.”
“That’s something that’s impossible for us to simulate in testing. So I’m interested to see what happens and what the end effect is when they’re in real traffic.”
The time differences between each tire compound are a second or more, and for those starting in the front half of the grid it will seem like a no-brainer to start on the softs. They need pace and grip for the start and to fight for position on the first lap.
“I think probably most cars will start on soft, because of the performance advantage,” said Isola. “It’s quite easy to overtake here, so they have to be vigilant if they want to go out with medium or hard, although it is possible that someone from behind will do it.”
“So the two possible strategies are soft/medium/medium, or soft/medium/soft. A strategy with all three compounds is also possible, which would be similar in terms of performance. It should be soft/hard/medium, it depends whether you have two media juices or not.
“Going out with medium is an option for people in the middle of the grid to try something different. Maybe hard is an option for drivers trying to do a one-stop race, using medium and hard.” .
It will be fascinating to find out what role tire management plays in the race.
“The tire is probably going to be the biggest issue in the race, degradation. Because when you follow another car too closely you damage your tyres,” said Fernando Alonso.
“So I don’t know if it’s smart to run so close. So we’ll see, I think the first couple of laps will be interesting, because it’s the first time we’ll be racing really close with these heavy cars.”
“We saw a lot of blocking mistakes and stuff like that. So hopefully we’ll have a clean race and we’ll all learn.”
Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB18
Sergio Pérez, a master of tire management, suggested that it would be wise to be cautious at first.
“Could be worse following other cars closely. But it will be interesting how it all changes, if you can pull it off in the DRS zone. I think none of us really know what to expect for the race. So it will be interesting to gain experience.”
Interestingly, third-placed Carlos Sainz hinted that degradation in traffic is less of an issue, and believes the drivers will be able to stay close to the cars in front lap after lap.
“Because we can actually follow more closely, we don’t need to open up as big gaps to manage the tires as we had to in the past,” he explained. “At least that’s my personal feeling. So it could be a bit of a closer race.”
“That doesn’t mean we could be overtaking everywhere, but maybe the cars can run a little bit closer to each other, in cases where the pace is similar.”
In an unknown fifth position on the grid, Lewis Hamilton pointed out that tire strategy options could give his Mercedes team a chance.
“Realistically we can’t really compete on pace with the guys ahead of us,” he lamented. “But we can fight the guys behind. We might have a slightly different tire strategy though, who knows if that may be key or not.”
Bahrain will be especially difficult for some drivers.
For Alfa Romeo rookie Guanyu Zhou, it will all be new, while both Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg and Alexander Albon will contest their first F1 races since 2020, and will inevitably suffer from some rust.
Hulkenberg’s (replacing Vettel at the last minute after testing positive for COVID) lack of testing means he has had even less chance than his rivals to follow other cars, and doesn’t really know what to expect.
“It will be a Houdini act,” he joked after qualifying, referring to the famous and historical magician.
McLaren F1 has a very specific issue with brake cooling, but team principal Andreas Seidl is confident it has been fixed and his drivers won’t suffer.
However, controlling temperatures when you’re constantly tailgating the car in front could become a big problem for everyone.
Furthermore, this will also be the first big test for the new race director, Niels Wittich , who will really be in the spotlight.
He made it clear that the rules are the rules and that the white line marks the edge of the track, and in Friday’s drivers’ briefing he gave his take on what a fair battle is when two cars go wheel-to-wheel in a corner. .
There is always the chance that it will be a smooth ride and you won’t have to get too involved in policing during or after the test. However, given all the circumstances, a calm Sunday seems unlikely.
