Polls continue to favor Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden over Republican Party candidate Donald Trump, one week before the November 3 election in the United States. Trump experienced a similar situation in the 2016 elections against Hilary Clinton. Despite the polls, the tycoon managed to prevail over Clinton. Four years after that comeback, the former diplomat, Chencho Arias, considers that “it is unlikely but not impossible for Trump to repeat the victory of 2016.” QUESTION: Despite the fact that this has been an atypical electoral campaign due to the coronavirus pandemic, candidates have been able to visit key states and hold traditional debates. Who is reinforced after the debate? ANSWER: After the last debate, I would say Donald Trump. Just as in the first debate Trump lost, mainly because of his manners, in this one he has been more tempered, more educated and the ideas that he has exposed to the undecided voter a little more impact. Not brutally more, but they have caused a little more impact. Joe Biden, he has no charisma but he was not bad, he had a slip on the oil issue. There are several states in the United States, such as Pennsylvania or Oklahoma, where it can take its toll. I’d say Trump was slightly better. Will it be enough to change the trend? Probably not. Q .: Which candidate is strongest on November 3? The GOP candidate’s strong point is the economy, while his weak point would be the pandemic. This has handled it in a clearly mediocre way, I would make a parallel with how our government has handled it and it has been very improvable in both cases. However, for the average American, the economy is their strong point.I read a Gallup poll that said 54% of Americans say they and their families are better off now than when Trump arrived. In addition, the Wall Street barometer is very high, that is, for the average American, its strong point is the economy and its weak point would be the management of the pandemic. The fact that he was infected with the virus was a blow to him.P .: The polls give a slight advantage to the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, over the Republican, Donald Trump. Something similar happened in 2016 with Hilary Clinton. Could Trump repeat the triumph of 2016 despite the polls? It is unlikely, but he could. Just as at the beginning of the campaign, Hilary was much more ahead than Biden now, in the final days, Clinton was less ahead (about 3 percentage points). Now Biden takes him about 6.20%. In another country it would be unthinkable (a comeback), but not in the US. The election is not decided by the massive vote of the citizens, it is decided by the vote of the delegates chosen by the citizens, in other words, if Trump manages to win in pendulum states (where the vote fluctuates between the Republican Party and the Republican Party). Democrat) as he did in 2016, he could win. But it is doubtful that it will succeed. Taking into account what happens, the Democrats have New York and California insured, even if Trump has Texas, he would have to repeat what he did in 2016. It is not impossible, it is not ruled out, but I consider it unlikely. Q: Will they affect the Hunter Biden scandals in Joe Biden’s electoral race? I don’t think I have a long way to go. The mainstream press, which is clearly anti-Trump, has not picked it up, has not made headlines. It is doubtful that this will go far enough to influence the election.It has gained a bit of momentum after the debate, but I doubt it will have a path.
