For a long time, the corona numbers fell continuously. This development has stopped for the time being. The delta variant is likely to be to blame for this. Was that it now with the relaxation?
Berlin – What experts feared has happened: While the proportion of the more contagious Delta variant is growing, the decline in the corona numbers is being slowed down.
For the first time since the beginning of June, the seven-day incidence has actually increased compared to the previous day – albeit only slightly. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) gave the number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants and week on Sunday morning as 5.0. The previous day the value was 4.9.
Incidence remains very low
The corona numbers are still very low overall and fluctuate at times, but two other values indicate the end of the sharp decline: On the second day in a row, the number of new infections was higher than on the same day of the previous week. The health authorities in Germany reported 559 new corona infections to the RKI within one day. A week ago it was 538. The R value, which shows the average number of people infected by an infected person, had recently increased and, according to the RKI, reached 1 on Friday evening – it was not that high for more than two months more.
A pandemic curve usually flattens out when the numbers have fallen sharply. Nevertheless, the Delta variant, which was first registered in India, could now have contributed to it. Modelers and virologists had warned that the delta variant (B.1.617.2), first detected in India, could exacerbate the relaxed corona situation again. It is considered more infectious, an infected person infects more people on average than with previous variants.
Delta share in new infections increases
Especially since the end of May, Delta’s share of new infections in Germany had risen significantly. According to the RKI estimate, at least half of the new infections are now due to the mutant, as it writes in its current variant report. The most recent data available to date show a share of 37 percent of the samples examined for the week from June 14 to 20. In the week before, according to the RKI, it was only 17 percent.
The Frankfurt virologist Sandra Ciesek also said in the podcast “Coronavirus-Update” (NDR-Info) on Tuesday that she assumed that Delta was already predominant in certain areas, perhaps even across Germany. There was a relatively large outbreak in Frankfurt. This was similar to what had already been observed in Great Britain: “It started at school and then spread.” Ciesek warned that Germany should quickly contain it with tests and quarantine.
Fluctuation or trend reversal?
Even if the value reported on Sunday could be an ordinary fluctuation or the greater influence of individual, larger outbreaks with a lower incidence: A closer look at the development of the delta cases certainly suggests that the numbers could actually continue to rise . Because while fewer and fewer people are infected with the most recently prevalent alpha variant, the absolute number of detected delta infections has increased in recent weeks, according to the RKI: After 410 such infections were recorded in the week from May 31 to June 6 According to the latest data, the RKI received 724 reports from June 14 to 20. Only some of the corona samples are tested for the variants.
In addition to the variants, other effects also have an impact on the development of the incidence. Experts had pointed out that the initially rapid decline is slowing down for mathematical reasons. In addition, it was expected that the number of cases would reach a plateau – and not go to zero. After all, Corona should not disappear completely again anytime soon. Thus, even during the most relaxed times of this pandemic, June and July 2020 , the incidence fluctuated around 3.
What are the effects of the delta numbers?
It is still difficult to assess what further increasing delta numbers could mean for Germany’s hospitals. “We do not yet have enough data to really say how dangerous or harmless (…) it is,” RKI boss Lothar Wieler recently said – and spoke of the first indications of a higher rate of hospital treatments. According to the RKI, the variant has so far more likely to affect people under 60. Their risk of severe courses is considered to be significantly lower compared to very old people.
According to the RKI, 37.9 percent of the population were fully vaccinated up to and including Thursday. If the vaccination protection has fully built up, the vaccinated have a high level of protection against hospital treatment, even at Delta, according to the current state of knowledge. Particularly unvaccinated people and people with just one dose should be careful, according to experts. dpa
