No matter how strong and prepared the health system of any country is, this will not be enough to cover the saturation crisis caused by the coronavirus health emergency. Of the countries that have best known how to react to the pandemic, we have learned that social distancing measures are the most effective in containing the spread; The counterpart is that the economy of each country will suffer as a result of a drop in consumption.
An article published by the journal Science , unfortunately, estimates that social distancing measures (not confinement) could be extended until the year 2022 if we want to effectively stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and sanitary saturation. As cited in the document: “The experience of China, Italy, and the United States shows that COVID-19 can overwhelm even the health care capabilities of well-resourced nations.” More investment in healthcare does not necessarily imply better management, as is the case, for example, in the United States.
As well; Once the social distancing and confinement measures have been applied, the countries that started the quarantine earlier are gradually lifting the measures, after achieving adequate control of the virus, and many hope that the same will happen soon in other countries such as Spain; But we might be being overly optimistic: “ To mitigate the possibility of a resurgence of the infection, prolonged or intermittent periods of social distancing may be required. After the initial pandemic wave, SARS-CoV-2 could follow its closest genetic relative, SARS-CoV-1, and be eradicated by intensive public health measures after causing a short but intense epidemic. But increasingly, public health authorities consider this scenario unlikely. ” Note here that countries such as Singapore are facing a second wave of infections since the end of March due to the early lifting of containment measures, as published by the BBC.
Although the coronavirus looks more like its first cousin SARS-CoV-1 than influenzaviruses, the authors believe that the trend is for it to begin to circulate seasonally, like the flu : “The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could resemble the of pandemic flu by circulating seasonally after causing an initial wave of infections. Distinguishing between these scenarios is key to formulating an effective and sustained public health response to SARS-CoV-2. “
The researchers have carried out a simulation in which they analyze the seasonality of other coronaviruses and other types of viruses, to try to predict a transmission model compatible with SARS-CoV-2: “Recurrent outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur. during the winter after the most severe initial pandemic wave. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary until the year 2022. “In addition, they add:” Even in the case of an apparent elimination of the virus, surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 should be maintained, since a resurgence of contagion could be possible until 2024 ”, they conclude.
Additionally, other interventions, such as expanded healthcare capacity and effective therapeutic care, would enhance the success of intermittent distancing and accelerate the acquisition of herd immunity.
The pandemic and post-pandemic transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 will depend, according to these experts, on factors that include the degree of seasonal variation in transmission, the duration of immunity, and the degree of cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2. and other coronaviruses, as well as the intensity and timing of the control measures.
Referencias:
‘Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period’
Stephen M. Kissler, Science, 14 Apr 2020, DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793
