Stats don't lie: do the 2022 rules work in F1?

Formula 1 decided to modify the technical regulations to create a category full of emotion, spectacle and, above all, overtaking. In recent years, the vast majority of fans had complained about races more similar to processions than to the most elite motorsport competition, although, on the other hand, it must be made clear that a Grand Prix with many overtaking is not always synonymous with a great show.

In the 2022 season, the Grand Circus premiered the new generation of single-seaters with ground effect, designed to favor the number of passes on the track, reducing the level of aerodynamic load and simplifying the elements, as well as costs.

The result of this has been four exciting Grands Prix in which Ferrari and Red Bull have proven to be the dominant forces, although rather than looking at the winners, one has to pay attention to whether the FIA has fulfilled its objective.

Series leaders expressed a desire to see more overtaking, and that meant shedding some of the so-called dirty air, which is a handicap when chasing a car at close quarters. So the teams created machines capable of losing only 18% to 4% of downforce, instead of 45% to 35%.

The farewell to these annoying turbulences allowed us to see some interesting fights, such as the one between Fernando Alonso and Esteban Ocon in Saudi Arabia, where neither of the two Alpines could open a gap, continuously getting ahead and confirming that what was intended had been achieved.

Now it is possible to stand up to another rider in the same conditions, and it is rarer to see someone hang down to save the tires, although it still happens due to the extreme degradation that has happened at specific times.

However, the statistics do not lie, and Formula 1, despite seeing duels on the track, have not achieved what they set out to do, since the average number of overtaking has fallen compared to last season; 32.25 on average for each race.

In 2021, in the first four rounds, we saw 38.5 passes per event, and there are no great excuses that can refute this, since they were on similar circuits, even less conducive to action.

In this 2022, the new single-seaters rolled in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Australia and Imola, tracks that, with the exception of the Italian one, are favorable for overtaking, while last year, Shakir himself and Imola accompanied two tracks prone to traffic jams such as Portimao and Barcelona.

This, in reality, could remain a simple anecdote, since it is possible that the circumstances of the races have caused these statistics, or that the drivers have not felt confident enough with their cars.

In the previous big regulation change, from 2016 to 2017 , Formula 1 experienced a historic event, as it went from an incredible figure of 61.75 overtaking per race at the start of the season, to just 16.5 .

Here you can compare perfectly, since they were the same tracks, although there is one more differentiating factor, the elimination classification format every 90 seconds, something that lasted two grand prix, and made drivers with faster cars start from behind after the slightest mistake. 2016 was also helped by the test in China, where 128 overtaking movements were seen, but it must be taken into account that Lewis Hamilton started from the bottom of the grid with a much superior Mercedes and that there were 22 drivers on the track.

In the 2018 season, when the participants had a year of experience with much wider, larger cars and, most importantly, without as much top speed by sacrificing it for downforce, the number rose to 36.75 overtaking per race, in the same circuits, except for Russia, which was replaced by the one in Baku.

With the passing of the campaigns, the number increased, and in 2019 it rose to 37 overtaking per race at the start, although 2020 is the exception, since there were only 29 passes per race, on circuits, yes, complicated for it , as were the Hungaroring and Silverstone.

The passage from one regulation to another almost always translates into fewer overtaking events, because it is no coincidence that when hybrid engines were introduced in 2014 , overtaking events per grand prix went from 50.75 to 31 in the same scenarios.

There are circumstances that can change the developments and outcomes of the tests in the Great Circus, but the coincidence of things such as the modification of the rules and the layouts where the appointments are disputed suggest two hypothetical branches.

One, and the most likely, is that the drivers still do not have that confidence that has been talked about so much with ground effect cars and 18-inch wheels, which are heavier and therefore more complex to get into. curve and to stop when braking.

The other is that the FIA has failed to create a Formula 1 destined for the show , wanting to go so far that they may have gone too far and that has caused nobody to want to risk failing, which is not so likely after seeing the data that They offer us the first four races of the last decade.