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The data that insinuates that Alfa Romeo will give the surprise in Monaco

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Alfa Romeo’s progress in Formula 1 this year has meant that we regularly see them in Q3 and on more than one occasion it has been a headache for Mercedes . But heading into this weekend’s Monaco Grand Prix, they have every right to think they might be in for their best chance of causing an upset so far in the World Championship.

Now that they have come to better understand the performance of their Alfa Romeo C42, they know that one of its main strengths is in low speed corners, of which there are plenty on the Monte Carlo street circuit.

As Valtteri Bottas commented after some high-speed sections of the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya exposed the Alfa Romeo to its rivals: “I think next week suits our car quite a bit.”

“It’s mainly low-speed corners, and our car is really good in low-speed corners.”

The data from Barcelona certainly seems to back up Bottas’s words that his strengths are in the slower sections.

Valtteri Bottas, Alfa Romeo C42, Fernando Alonso, Alpine A522, Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-22

In very general terms, it is often said that the performance of a car in the third sector in Barcelona is a good indicator of how it will behave in Monaco, because it is a sequence of medium/low speed corners.

Looking at the times for that sector in qualifying, Bottas’ Alfa Romeo was among the best.

Taking into account the fastest time of each car in the third sector S3 of the Montmeló circuit, this would be the order:

  1. Ferrari 27.336 segundos
  2. Red Bull 27.411s
  3. Alfa Romeo 27.443s
  4. Haas 27.561s
  5. Mercedes 27.698s
  6. McLaren 27.768s
  7. Alpine 27.896s
  8. AlphaTauri 27.984s
  9. Aston Martin 28.197s
  10. Williams 28.586s

That already looks hopeful for Alfa Romeo, but if you dig even deeper into the individual micro-sector times of the entire lap, you can see that Alfa Romeo was actually fastest overall in some segments.

Comparing the qualifying laps of Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen and Valtteri Bottas, the GPS records show that Alfa Romeo was quickest overall into Turn 12 right-hand, as well as out of the chicane and into the end curve.

That indicates good low-speed traction, so Bottas and his Alfa Romeo are certainly entitled to dream big things this weekend.

Carlos Sainz, Ferrari F1-75, Valtteri Bottas, Alfa Romeo C42, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W13

But despite the positive signs provided by the data, Alfa Romeo is not getting too carried away by the euphoria, as he has no doubts that the top teams will be as strong as they have been all year, so there is little chance of a surprising victory.

Alfa Romeo track engineering boss Xevi Pujolar doesn’t think everything will be easy in Monaco.

“In terms of performance, I don’t expect anything magical,” he said. “We are strong at lower speeds, but the top teams are also strong there. It’s not that we are much better than them, we are closer to them.”

“We will probably have a better gap with the midfield, a bit more margin. But I think Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes, seeing the performance they had in Sector 3 in Barcelona, are still good.”

But even getting a result behind Ferrari and Red Bull would be a good way to cap off the Monaco weekend.

“We were fighting for fourth [in Spain] and then we finished sixth, so I mean why not go for that fourth or better?” Pujolar added. “Sure we will try.”

“If someone makes a mistake, we will try to seize the opportunity. But the number one priority for us is to make sure both cars are fast, because if we have Zhou [Guanyu] there too, then we will be a strong contender.”

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