Corn, rice, sorghum, wheat, sugar cane, oats … The immense family of grasses or poaceae plants ( Poaceae ) provide approximately half of the calories consumed by humanity and are the basis of prairies and pastures, which cover a quarter part of the planet. What would happen if they disappeared? It is not the plot of the latest catastrophe film, but the real scenario that researchers from the University of Arizona, in the United States, have considered. And the threat is sadly known: global warming.
Experts have analyzed the climatic conditions in which 236 representative species of grasses can grow and have compared them with the prospects for global warming between now and 2070. Taking into account the behavior of these plants in the past, North American scientists have reached the conclusion that they are not prepared to adapt to the drastic transformation of the meteorological environment where they grow; comparatively, the rise in temperatures and the variation in rainfall during the previous millennia was moderate .
Up to 20,000 times more, the study authors estimate, their climatic conditions will change in the coming decades. The forecast holds for both wild and agricultural varieties.
That does not mean that wheat or corn will become extinct around the world: it will happen, the scientists at the University of Arizona conjecture, in those places without the adequate technological means, more directly dependent on the climate . But the decline would be widespread.
The study was published in the Royal Society Biology Letter .
