Although for international air traffic it has not been possible to speak of a recovery in 2021, for US airlines in Mexico the story is different.
With a volume of more than 21 million users, the 14 airlines from the neighboring country that operate in Mexico led the international segment by concentrating 59.2% of passengers, when before the pandemic they transported between 43% and 46% of the market.
These airlines not only recovered the passengers they had before COVID-19, but also achieved 1% growth, which, despite seeming little, is enviable considering that Mexican airlines are 40% below in the same market, according to data from the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC).
Even the top international airlines moved, both on the US and Mexican sides.
On the one hand, American Airlines and United Airlines went from being the second and fourth largest airline in Mexico in 2019, to occupy the first two places, driven by a 10% growth in international passengers.
Meanwhile, Aeroméxico went from being the main airline to the third, with a 45% drop in its international volume compared to 2019. Meanwhile, Volaris was the fourth largest international airline, with 8% growth in the same period. .
Behind these figures there are several factors. For Gerardo Herrera, an academic at the Universidad Iberoamericana, Interjet’s exit from the market has been one of the most crucial, since with 4.7 million passengers, in 2019 it was the third largest airline in the segment, only behind Aeroméxico and American Airlines.
“There was a decrease in Mexican supply due to the disappearance of Interjet, which led to the reconfiguration of several international routes,” explains the specialist. “But even without Interjet, the American lines, due to their size, infrastructure and resources, returned to their regular operations more or less quickly. On the other hand, Aeroméxico between its restructuring is caught ‘limping’”.
Despite the fact that a challenging year is expected for international travel due to the omicron variant –which even led to the imposition of new travel restrictions–, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) places the region North American and Latin American with the best performances worldwide.
Even the firm Bain & Company estimates that travel demand could recover to 84% of 2019 levels by the end of this year, and up to 95% in the most optimistic scenario.
Beyond these challenges, Mexican companies have other more particular challenges, such as the degradation of Mexican air security, which has prevented them from opening new routes and incorporating more aircraft, which has also worked in favor of their counterparts in the United States, who do not have this restriction.
“If this did not exist, 2022 could be a year of market leveling,” Herrera considers. “I think it will start until the second half of the year, if they achieve their projections of recovering Category 1 by then. Summer would be the great opportunity to balance the market”. But if the projections are not met and it goes until the second semester, they would lose the summer and that temporary rearrangement of 2021 could become persistent, he believes.
