The federal administration has decided to continue its firm commitment to refining with the purchase of the Deer Park refinery and the construction of Dos Bocas, in Tabasco. But, despite the trend that seems homogeneous towards decarbonization, Mexico is not the only country that continues to bet on new projects of this type.
By 2025, at least 83 new refineries will begin operations globally, according to a report by Global Data, a London-based consultancy.
The new refining complexes are mainly located in the Middle East and Asia, while in Europe and the United States the trend is towards the closure of the plants or the transformation of the complexes towards petrochemical and biofuel production.
In a previous report, from February last year -before the health emergency-, the consulting firm counted 154 new refining projects, which would come into operation by 2024. But the crisis resulting from the coronavirus pandemic modified many of the sector’s plans and accelerated the decarbonization process that had already started a few years ago.
Despite this, the estimate is that the installed refining capacity worldwide will increase by 2.8% towards 2025.
China currently has at least nine projects underway to add new refining capacity or build new refineries over the next five years. A bet that seems contrary to one of the promises of the Asian giant, which is based on achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
As part of these plans, the Asian country has also decided to boost its petrochemical production capacity. A strategy aimed at by a large part of the world’s oil companies, such as Shell in the United States, but which Mexico has decided not to prioritize due to the lack of investment capacity.
The new plans of the Asian giant and a series of movements to expand its capacity made during the past year will in the short term lead China to become the largest refiner in the world, above the United States, which has begun to register a series of refinery closures, which were already scheduled, but which were brought forward by the health emergency and the low demand for fuels derived from it.
With this change, China will also become the new major exporter of fossil fuels, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency (EIA), which will generate a major change in the market.
Asia will be the continent that adds the most refining capacity in the coming years, supported by a series of projects, such as a new refinery with a capacity of 420,000 barrels per day in Sri Lanka, which intends to start operations in 2024 and which aims to become the new complex with more capacity in said region.
The Middle East, an oil region by nature, also continues to expand its refining capacity, with new complexes in Jizan, Saudi Arabia and Al-Zour, Kuwait. The latter will be able to process up to 615,000 barrels of oil per day per day.
Africa will also continue with an upward trend in refining, its most important project is in Lagos, the largest city in Nigeria, with a capacity of 480,000 barrels per day and with an expectation of entering operations in 2024.
In general, developing and oil-producing countries have developed a strategy aimed at continuing to refine fuels as demand for these will continue in their regions, while developed countries –mainly Europe and the United States–, as well Like most private oil companies, they have decided to gradually abandon their refining work, to focus on the production of petrochemicals, fuels with low levels of sulfur or to open their investment range towards renewable energies.
