Many experts are certain: the coronavirus will remain. A new study predicts that Covid-19 will develop into a childhood disease in the long term.
Frankfurt – More and more experts estimate that Sars-CoV-2 will become endemic, i.e. indigenous. However, this would not be the same as a kind of eternal pandemic: The more people have themselves vaccinated against Corona * or have built up immune protection after infection, the better the so-called basic immunity protects us. Then there will be mainly seasonal fluctuations, during which the virus spreads faster or slower in phases. According to a scientific model forecast, Corona could then particularly affect one population group: children.
Scientists led by Ottar Bjornstad from Pennsylvania State University and Ruiyun Li from the University of Oslo have calculated how the infection process could shift if most people are at least temporarily immune to the virus. They present their results in a specialist article that has already been published. Accordingly, it will primarily be children who will be infected with corona – as long as there is no suitable vaccine for them. In this country, minors can only be vaccinated from the age of 12 *, the mRNA vaccines from Biontech / Pfizer and Moderna are approved for this.
Since Covid 19 disease in children is harmless in most cases, this shift would mean relief overall. “There are clear signs of increasing severity with age and higher mortality,” says lead author Bjornstad, according to Der Spiegel.
New study on the coronavirus: In the long term, it is primarily children who could become infected
The experts make sure that the modeled development is realistic by looking at the careers of other, formerly dangerous pathogens. For example, genetic analyzes would suggest that the HCoV-OC43 coronavirus, which caused a flu epidemic in Asia and Russia at the end of the 19th century, is now a mild cold virus – which mainly affects children between the ages of seven and twelve months.
“In the case of many infectious respiratory diseases, the prevalence in the population skyrockets during a new epidemic, but then falls in a decreasing wave pattern when the infection moves towards an endemic equilibrium,” says lead author Li, according to Der Spiegel.
However, this development not only presupposes that more people will be vaccinated against the virus in the near future or that they will build up immune protection through an infection, but also that this protection is permanent. However, study results would rather indicate that at least one infection only protects against recurrence for a comparatively short period of time. In Germany, for example, people are considered to have recovered up to the sixth month after infection. How long vaccines protect has not yet been adequately researched, as has the effect of booster vaccinations.
Covid-19 as a childhood disease? Forecast with a few prerequisites
It is also unclear how the virus itself will continue to mutate. “We don’t yet know him well enough to be able to assess how much development potential there might still be,” explains epidemiologist André Karch from the University of Münster to the MDR. First of all, it is important to have enough vaccine available all over the world so that there are as few opportunities as possible for variants to develop. (mp) * fnp.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.
List of rubric lists: © Uwe Anspach / dpa
