By mid-century, nights in many parts of North Africa will be hot. Even more than today. In summer, nighttime temperatures will never drop below 30 ºC, and by day reaching 46 ºC will no longer be news. Something similar will happen in the Middle East. In fact, in about 80 years, on hot days it will be around 50 ° C at noon .
These are some of the conclusions of a study promoted by a team of researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, in Mainz (Germany) and the Cyprus Institute. In it they warn that even a moderate rise in temperatures around the world, of just two degrees on average over the next few decades, will cause these regions to rise at least twice as much. Also, it will happen more quickly.
According to an article published in the journal Climatic Change , by 2050 both areas will register five times more extremely hot days than at present, and by 2100 heat waves will be ten times more frequent.
In the same way, more dust storms will occur – in just 15 years, the one that is suspended over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria has increased by 70% – and, almost certainly, air pollution levels will rise significantly. All of this will force part of the population to leave these areas , where today more than 500 million people live.
The calculations made by these experts in atmospheric physics and chemistry and computer science, made from a comparison between real data and 26 forecast models, suggest that, in the best of cases, that is, if greenhouse gas emissions greenhouse were reduced by 2040, by 2100 temperatures would be unusually high in North Africa and the Middle East for 118 days a year . If not, it would be about 200.
Image: Luca Galuzzi / CC
