Economy#Between the lines | Geopolitics, Taiwan and the loss...

#Between the lines | Geopolitics, Taiwan and the loss of Mexico

(Expansion) – There is no geopolitical view. Much less geostrategic. The United States-China lawsuit, which is intensifying with its corresponding impacts, is not analyzed in Mexico and the degrees of opportunity that it brings with it are not taken advantage of. Being relevant and competitive in global chess doesn’t matter. Our thing is to get entangled in homemade and surreal debates.

A few days ago, the two great world powers starred in a new episode that could bring countless consequences, especially economic and business. The visit to Taiwan of Nancy Pelosi, president of the House of Representatives of the United States, provoked the fury of China and this once again altered the little peace that is breathed today.

The Democratic leader’s visit to the island inhabited by 24.5 million people, and which China considers part of its territory, was not a simple walk, but an action that opens a new episode in the old conflict between the United States and China. , and that can come to move political, economic and business strategies.

In the midst of the context, Mexico is a stone guest, but above all a player that wastes the industrial processes derived from this lawsuit. There is no dispute that Mexico is part of North America, which forces us to promote robust growth in the area, but we must also position ourselves in the face of new economic structures.

Let’s move on to the context:

The United States maintains itself as the great power, but its dominance is no longer what it was before. Some acid internationalists claim that its hegemony is broken, while China has planted a thought around its strong economic capacity and intends to become an empire in the 21st century and highlight the importance of its civilization.

Julio Millán, president of Consultores Internacionales and architect of the Chinese opening to Mexican capital, explains: “China has an aspirational socialist model; This led to the policy that was a planned economy becoming an economy of individual development, so that what is today the factory of the world could take place.”

Through a paper entitled “The rise of China vs. United States”, published in the Armas Magazine, the businessman complements: “Socialism with Chinese characteristics, which implies being a communist country, but incorporating private property, the desire for growth, the elaboration of enormous infrastructure projects, generates growth that will surpass the economy of the United States of America”.

For his part, Simón Levy, former president of the Board of Directors of Latinasia (an investment fund between China and Latin America), assures that we are facing the prelude to a war economy, focused on the technological struggle between the United States and China.

His approach is this: “We are experiencing a very delicate post-pandemic period and, in the midst of all this, an economic transformation is coming through the knowledge industry, specifically with the development of semiconductors and nanochips. The axis, the umbilical cord of this story is called Taiwan because it is the country with the greatest specialization in the development of microchips and semiconductors”.

So, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is considered a provocation because, for decades, China has insisted on its territorial integrity. “China is pragmatic, it negotiates what you want, but not on the issue of territorial sovereignty,” says Enrique Dussel Peters, coordinator of the Center for China-Mexico Studies at the UNAM Faculty of Economics. “Since 1949, China has insisted on the policy of one China, that is why this issue is frightening, because its position is irreducible.”

We better not get into this conflict. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador can say kisses not bullets, but no more than that since they are the two main commercial partners of Mexico. But we can, we must, take advantage of the opportunities that geopolitics offers us.

While nearshoring has become a buzzword when it comes to the US-China conflict, the conversation breaks down when trying to formalize it. Therefore, Mexico is not betting on the integration of logistics value chains; Although it registers some success stories around nearshoring, it is not getting all the juice it could from its exportable offer.

Recently, the Inter-American Development Bank stated that Mexico could be the biggest beneficiary of nearshoring in Latin America, with the potential to obtain up to 35.3 billion dollars a year. But not.

According to the document “Commercial opportunities for Mexico in the context of tensions between the United States and China as of 2017”, published in the Techint Bulletin, there are 198 activities where Mexico could have particular potential. However, no taken action in this regard.Nearshoring has been promoted, mainly, by some companies, but not by the government.

In short, the lawsuit United States vs. China will intensify but it will not be the end of the world. Chinese investment funds will not leave the United States, and the United States will not give up low-cost Chinese trade. Mexico, meanwhile, does not demonstrate a moderately systematized effort to take advantage of the circumstance. And you’re already paying the price.

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Marcelo Ebrard, it is said in geopolitical analysis circles, is the only member of the self-styled fourth transformation who knows how important it is to calibrate events between the United States and China. For the rest of the decision makers in the public sector, including the president, geopolitics is not a priority. The foreign minister is very clear about the Chinese film, but he is very busy with the tall tales of national politics.

Editor’s note: Jonathán Torres is managing partner of BeGood, Atelier de Reputación and Storydoing; business journalist, media consultant, former editorial director of Forbes Media Latam. Follow him on and on Twitter as . The opinions published in this column belong exclusively to the author.

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