(Expansion) – Capitalism has a new narrative in the name of the energy transition. Now there is a crusade for decarbonization and defossilization in the face of the climate crisis. Lithium is the protagonist and the tool for the construction of new productive chains.
They call it green capitalism and, like all resignification, this one has many faces but here there are only three: China has taken a lot of juice out of the lithium business, Elon Musk is already rubbing his hands to strengthen his businesses with the use of it and Mexico thinks which has tons of this mineral, but it is not entirely clear.
Lithium is not as sophisticated as gold but today it is a highly coveted metal. It is an element for the energy transition, since it is a key component for electric car batteries, but also for other highly complex electronic components.
According to the Goldman Sachs bank, 481,000 tons of carbonate and other sources of lithium were produced in 2021, but it is estimated that the supply will increase at breakneck speed thanks to its demand. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency projects that by 2040 the demand for lithium could increase more than 40 times compared to 2020.
The global availability of lithium is relatively wide. The most conservative estimates consider that there are about 85 million tons of lithium in the world, although they are highly concentrated in South America and Australia, but it is the Chinese companies that dominate the market for the extraction of this mineral.
. Last week, the government published the decree announcing the creation of “LitioMx”, a decentralized public body coordinated by the Ministry of Energy, whose objective will be the exploration, exploitation, benefit and use of lithium, located in national territory, as well as the administration and control of the value chains of said mineral.
However, Mexican politics has had a volatile relationship with lithium. For years its exploitation was not considered. At the end of the last century, the existence of 69 deposits was taken as a reference. In 2011, a company searching for gold in Sonora stumbled upon what was later considered the world’s largest deposit with 243 million tons, more than is currently estimated worldwide.
In times of the so-called fourth transformation, the episodes around lithium have been contradictory and confusing. One day, a secretary of state stated that the time had come for Mexico to develop its own lithium project. Later, the president rejected it because of the cost involved. Then there was talk of nationalization and the withdrawal of concessions granted to companies. Then the call went to invite them to participate in the budding industry.
Now, lithium is considered a strategic mineral and, along with the creation of “LitioMx”, there are more doubts than certainties. With the collaboration of Aleida Azamar, author of the document “Lithium in Mexico: truths and lies” and coordinator of the Master’s Degree in Sustainable Societies of the Autonomous Metropolitan University, five are cited in this story:
First , lithium is proposed as a response to the need to ensure the country’s energy sovereignty, but this is only one of the 15 elements necessary for the energy transition (including cobalt, nickel and copper); In addition, this mineral serves to store energy, not to generate it.
Second , it is believed that there are tons of lithium below us but it will take a long time for us to confirm it. In 2014, the Sonora deposit was said to have 6.5 million tons of lithium carbonate (the most widely used lithium component in the world). In 2018, there was talk of 8.8 million and, later, the calculations flew.
In mid-2021, the Mexican Geological Service reported the existence of lithium in at least 82 deposits and, to validate it, has a budget of 60 million pesos; that is to say, it is as if it were intended to drill an oil well with a kitchen spoon (as a reference, to estimate the amount of lithium in the Sonora deposit, 4 million dollars were required over a period of five years).
Third , on the one hand there is talk of the nationalization of the lithium industry and on the other the companies are invited to participate in what is to come. This ambiguity is causing uncertainty but above all annoyance, which can lead to lawsuits with the companies that acquired rights with the concessions already granted. Thus, we could be facing one more controversy in the T-MEC environment.
Fourth , “LitioMx” will be under the command of an Administrative Council made up of five holders related to the government (Economy, Finance, Energy, Government and Semarnat). And the specialists? Flor de María Harp, head of the Mexican Geological Service, has a voice but no vote on that Council.
Fifth , it is not known if experts on labor issues will be considered, especially with the problems that gravitate in mining; There is also no clarity on the social perspective of the new public company.
There are many unanswered questions: Isn’t an environmental impact analysis required? Is there an assessment of the economy and its local impact? How is the water going to be remediated because lithium, like any other mineral, uses a lot of water (the deposits are in areas with high water stress)? Are the possible social conflicts that can be detonated located?
Lithium is not the bad guy in this story, it is the (bad) practices that can be applied in its name.
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Who sounds like directing “LitioMx”? Flor de María Harp could not only be the most obvious choice, she would be the most indicated due to her knowledge on the matter. However, there is a name that already carries a lot of weight and who, whoever it is, will be the power behind the scenes: Rocío Nahle.
Editor’s note: Jonathán Torres is managing partner of BeGood, Atelier de Reputación and Storydoing; business journalist, media consultant, former editorial director of Forbes Media Latam. Follow him on and on Twitter as . The opinions published in this column belong exclusively to the author.
