When we think about the consequences of climate change, images of relentless droughts, melting ice at the poles, or disease-carrying mosquitoes spreading across the planet immediately come to mind.
It is difficult to establish a priori a relationship between climate change and fertility but, although the headline of this news may seem crazy, the truth is that the foreseeable changes in the climate are also going to affect our way of life and, therefore, a An indirect consequence of this will also be the increase or decrease in the number of children we have.
These are the conclusions of a work that has just been published by an international team of scientists in the journal Environmental Research Letters . The researchers examined the economic channels through which climate change could eventually affect human fertility, including sectoral reallocation of employment, the gender pay gap, longevity and infant mortality.
Through its effects on the economy, climate change could have a substantial impact on fertility, as people decide how much time and money to spend raising children , and consider whether to use their resources to have more children or to invest in each child’s future.
To reach their conclusions, the scientists used a model that combines standard economic-demographic theory with current estimates of the economic consequences of climate change. The model establishes two stages in the life of each individual: childhood and adulthood. In adult life, parents must decide how to distribute resources, limited in this scenario of global change, to support family consumption, have children and also pay for the education of each child. On the other hand, the future income of the children also depends on the decisions that the parents make.
North-South differences
The researchers also looked at two example economies: Colombia and Switzerland.
One of the main results of the work is that the demographic impacts of climate change will not affect all countries equally. “Our model suggests that climate change may worsen inequalities by reducing fertility and increasing education in richer northern countries, while increasing fertility and reducing education in tropical countries,” warns Soheil Shayegh, a researcher at the Bocconi University of Milan (Italy) and one of the authors of the study.
“The rise in global temperature affects agriculture-based economies differently than other sectors. We know that near the equator, where many poorer countries are located, climate change will have a negative effect on agriculture ”, explains Gregory Casey, a researcher at Williams College in Massachusetts (USA) and lead author of the work. “This leads to a shortage of agricultural products, a rise in price, and ultimately a reallocation of labor. Because agriculture does not need such a skilled labor force, our model showed that the change Climate decreases the ‘performance of skills acquisition’, leading parents to invest fewer resources in the education of each child and increase fertility. “
These data should be taken with caution because, as their authors acknowledge, they only use an economic channel, so “we do not pretend to give a quantitative explanation of the impact of climate change on demographic results. More work is needed in other economic channels, especially in those related to health, ”adds Casey. In any case, it is a wake-up call regarding which population groups could be, again, the most affected by the social consequences of climate change.
“Our results are striking, because the richest countries have been those who have benefited the most disproportionately from the use of natural resources that has driven climate change”, reflects the researcher. If their predictions are true, new global policies will be necessary that try to prevent, once again, the same people who pay for the broken dishes of our waste.
Reference: Casey et al, 2019. The impact of climate change on fertility. Environmental Research Letters 14 (5)
