In early 2020, the world came to a standstill. Many countries began to impose very drastic measures to restrict mobility, in other cases it was citizens who voluntarily confined themselves at home to stop the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The cities were emptied of cars, the air traffic of people practically paralyzed, and many industries stopped their production.
An international team of scientists has just published a preliminary study on the impact of landfill on carbon dioxide emissions. Between the months of January and April 2020, emissions decreased, on average, 8.6% compared to the values for the same period in the previous year. In addition, the steepest decline was reached on April 7, with a 17% drop in emissions compared to the same day in 2019.
The researchers used a combination of energy, activity and public policy data available for 69 countries that together account for 97% of global emissions and 85% of the world’s population.
“The decreases in emissions in 2020 were greater in China, which was the first country to paralyze its activity, followed by the United States, Europe and India,” explains Pep Canadell, director of the Global Carbon Project and co-author of the article. ” The maximum daily decline of 17% on April 7 was due to the fact that China, the United States, India and all the other carbon-emitting countries were at a high level of lockdown simultaneously .”
Confinement index
The researchers estimated emissions at the country level based on a ‘confinement index’ that represents the effect of different national policies and the estimated impact on six sectors of the economy: electricity and heating (electricity), surface transport, industry, buildings. public and commercial, residential and aviation. They determined the decrease in emissions for each sector based on the severity of the blockage and the impact on the sector.
The global decrease in emissions has been mainly triggered by changes in the number of cars and other vehicles on the road (the surface transport sector, which also includes maritime transport), leading to a 36% decrease in the emissions.
“In other sectors, the power sector ranked second and the industrial sector (which encompasses the manufacturing and production of materials) third in terms of its contributions to the global decrease in emissions at the beginning of April,” says Canadell. On the other hand, the researchers point out that residential emissions increased globally, an expected figure since a large part of the world’s population was confined to their homes during these months.
Aviation was, unsurprisingly, another of the sectors that experienced a greater reduction in its emissions. This was 60% in early April compared to 2019.
What will happen now?
The authors of the work, which is published in the journal Nature Climate Change , indicate that everything will depend on how long and to what degree the restrictions last. If countries remain locked at different levels until the end of 2020, it is estimated that this year emissions could fall, on average, by around 7.5%. However, if all restrictions are lifted in mid-June, the total reduction at the end of the year will be only 4.2%.
Should we confine ourselves to curb climate change?
Despite the fact that a first reading of these data could lead one to think that the only way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to make great sacrifices and paralyze activity, it must be taken into account that the decrease in emissions has been relatively low to despite the confinement. Nor is it good to fall into catastrophism and think that nothing can be done to stop climate change.
As we told you in this interview, what these data should make us think is that it is necessary to redesign the economic and productive system. It is not necessary to confine yourself or make big sacrifices as we are doing during this unfortunate pandemic : it is possible to live very well, even better than we live now, without continuing to destroy the planet. Of course, we must act as soon as possible, and take advantage of this stop to propose how we want to do things to stop that other great crisis (the climate one) in which we are already immersed.
