The complex inflationary panorama of the second half of this year may have a glimmer of hope: El Buen Fin 2022 .
While analysts expect the peak of inflation to occur between August and September with the return to school, the discounts for the Good End season, in November , could contain the rise in prices at the end of the year.
“There are (hopefully important) decreases (in prices) coming in the Good End, although we also don’t know how much the participants will discount due to the environment of higher costs they face,” said Ricardo Aguilar, chief economist at Invex Banco.
The specialist highlighted that in October and November the federal government withdraws the subsidies for electricity that it gives in some areas of the country in summer, which could play against the pockets of Mexicans.
Invex estimates that inflation will close the year with a rate of 8.2%, more than double the target of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), which is 3% with a margin of error of one percentage point up and down.
By 2023, Invex estimates that inflation will drop to 5.1%, still outside the central bank’s range.
The Good End season is not yet resolved: to control inflation, Banxico must continue to raise the reference rate and it is estimated that by the end of the year it will already register levels never seen before, above 8.5%.
With a high rate of inflation, economists expect more restrained consumption. Although everything points to a “brief” recession in the United States, this effect will not impact Mexico, according to Aguilar.
“For now we do not estimate a recession in Mexico, neither this year nor the next, but the growth estimate for Mexico of 1.5% in 2023 can go down if the Federal Reserve (Fed) cannot lower rates,” he stressed.