(Expansion) – On June 6, the most important midterm elections in the history of Mexico will be held. On the one hand, there will be more than 20,000 positions at stake: the 500 federal councils, 15 governorships, mayors and local councils. It will be the first time, since the 2014 reform was approved, that the deputies will be able to be re-elected.
However, the crucial weight of these elections is their value as a referendum of the government of President López Obrador. His approval of his management remains close to 60% and it seems that his party will obtain significant victories in these elections.
Compared with the beginning of the electoral period, the polls have placed a resounding setback against Morena. The result will change according to the inertia of the vote, if it remains in the same direction as in 2018 or succumbs to the pendulum effect.
The pendulum law, discovered by Galileo Galilei more than 500 years ago, alludes to back and forth oscillations and the exact time it takes for the pendulum to return from one extreme to the center. In politics, this effect is reflected in the regular and predictable alternation of parties in power.
For example, in a two-party system like the United States, power is often transferred from Republicans to Democrats between administrations. The swing usually goes from left to right or vice versa. What happens in a country like Mexico? Power has recently been relieved between parties whose policies do not adhere to the ideologies that they represent on paper. As an example, the current government is called leftist and, in reality, its speech and actions lean towards the populist right.
López Obrador took advantage of that inertia in 2018. Insecurity soared with the PAN and worsened with the PRI. Corruption was exacerbated in those administrations and, although there were improvements in poverty, they were not enough. The question is whether three years later the situation has improved. His media appearances are riddled with his government’s achievements, makeup figures, the famous “other facts,” and attacks that blame his predecessors for his government’s failures.
Reality shows another side: the most violent years in history, with more than 35,500 murders in 2019 and 2020; a very laconic response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has highlighted the failures in the public health system; unprecedented acts of corruption such as the delivery of money to Pío López for the president’s campaign; the unfinished witch hunt of politicians of the past; a stagnant economy; an energy sector that is retreating by leaps and bounds; and an impunity rate is close to 99%. So if the midterm elections are like an evaluation prior to the famous 2022 plebiscite, what rating will the voters assign to it?
The president’s demagoguery has been very effective in dividing society. The antipodes see “fifís” against “chairos”, conservatives against liberals, businessmen against those who support the government project and the good press against the bad. Without realizing it, this polarization only gives further momentum to the pendulum, as an increasingly fickle society can shift its weight from the center to the other extreme with great ease.
The case of Donald Trump in the United States was remarkable and the speed with which he had to hand over power in the face of the exacerbation of social differences. We don’t have to go that far, the initial electoral trends showed that Morena would potentially win 14 of the 15 governorships and even win seats in the Chamber of Deputies. The most recent ones show less promising numbers, with only half of the entities favoring Morena and a murky scenario for the federal councils.
This political duality that characterizes the electoral prelude must be clear that, although both sides yearn for different scenarios, the most convenient for all is a balance of powers and a balance of parties in decision-making. For Morena’s opponents, taking power away from Congress and preventing more entities from turning the icing on the cake is very evident.
However, the reasoning must be different from simply punishing AMLO. It is necessary to preserve the value of the institutions, demand results and prevent arbitrariness in public policy decisions. On the other hand, those who support Morena’s project would also benefit from stronger opposition.
In this way, it is more difficult for the initiatives approved in Congress to be suspended later by the Judiciary, such as modifications to the Electricity and Hydrocarbon Industry laws. Faced with the need to forge alliances to reach a qualified majority in Congress, Morena will have to clarify his proposals, render accounts, include observations from the opposition and seek consensus among the parties.
If the inertia of the pendulum is channeled in a single direction, instead of oscillating between extremes, the two parties will understand that convergence will bring them closer to a goal faster: the best scenario for Mexico.
The only two forces involved in the pendulum’s motion are gravity and string tension. In the case of these elections, the seriousness lies in the political course that the government will navigate as a result of the result, and the tension is reflected in the antagonism of the electorate.
The terms “useful vote” and “punishment vote” are constantly heard as strategies to vote, but the ideal thing would be to opt for an “objective and informed vote”, where the aim is to preserve our democracy, which is sustained in the institutions , representation of all groups and respect for results.
It is not yet known if the pendulum effect will alter the configuration of Congress and put a stop to the morenista swell in the states, or if the support will remain at the same extreme that it reached three years ago. However, as long as the pendulum swings, the alternation will demand better results from whoever receives the baton.
The worst that can happen is that, faced with political disaffection, the inertia of the pendulum vanishes and Mexico is paralyzed in the center, where it has already lived for almost a century. In the words of Benjamin Disraeli, “no government can remain strong for long without formidable opposition.”
Editor’s Note: Antonio Michel studied International Relations at ITAM, where he is a professor, and has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from Maxwell University. He worked for almost 7 years in the Federal Public Administration, in the Ministries of Foreign Relations, Social Development, Energy and Government. His passion is international affairs, political affairs and public administration. Follow him on and on. The opinions published in this column belong exclusively to the author.
