The deputy governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), Gerardo Esquivel, estimated that inflation will remain at high levels in the last quarter of the year and considered that inflation has already reached its highest point and warned of the risks of taking the real rate higher beyond 5%.
The economist’s estimates are that inflation will drop slowly over the next three months and it will be until 2023 when the “most significant” reductions will be seen.
Esquivel added that currently, with a reference rate of 9.25% and a real rate of 4% after removing inflation, he expects a maximum real rate of 5% to be reached at the end of the hike cycle.
“The highest point we have had for the real interest rate in recent years was 4.4%, and that level was reached in November 2018, just when, as is known, the cancellation of the construction of the International Airport of Mexico City and when an administration was about to start, which is the current one,” he said.
He hopes that the real rate will not exceed 5% because if it did, there would be negative implications for the country’s economic activity.
In his participation in the North Economic podcast, made by Grupo Financiero Banorte, Esquivel said that next year the shocks that impacted inflation will begin to unravel, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, which began on February 24 of this year.
“We are anticipating that all of 2023 will be a period of reduction in annual inflation, but that we will not reach our objective until 2024,” said the deputy governor, who this year ends his term as deputy governor of Banxico.
Esquivel said that it has been an honor to participate in major issues, such as when the 2020 crisis occurred due to the pandemic. “The truth is that it has been a very challenging and stimulating process from the intellectual and academic point of view and reflection, because the context has been particularly difficult.”