1.5 ° C. This figure is a kind of mantra in global warming, and expresses a temperature with respect to pre-industrial levels that should not be exceeded if we want to avoid the worst effects of climate change that is already unstoppable. However, the forecasts are not very optimistic and, although it is necessary to limit emissions as much as possible to achieve the lowest possible increase, it seems that it will be inevitable to exceed that limit.
According to a statement from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), “ there is approximately a 40% probability that, in at least one of the next five years, the planet’s average annual temperature will transiently exceed 1.5 ° C levels. pre-industrial . And those probabilities increase with the passage of time ”.
In addition, and according to the WMO, the probability that any of the years in the period between 2021 and 2025 will break the record for the warmest ever recorded is 90%. So far, 2020 and 2016 are the years with the highest global average temperature since records are available. Specifically, in 2020 the global average temperature was approximately 14.9 ° C, which indicates 1.02 ° C higher than pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
“This high-level scientific study shows that we are moving quantifiably and inexorably closer to the less ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change . It is a new wake-up call on the need to accelerate the adoption of global commitments to reduce emissions. greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality, “explains WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “Today, technological advances make it possible to trace greenhouse gas emissions to their sources in order to precisely target reduction measures,” he adds.
These data also remind us that it is necessary to invest and work towards adaptation , as many of the effects of climate change are unavoidable. “Only half of the 193 WMO Members have state-of-the-art early warning services. Countries should continue their efforts to develop services that will be essential for enabling adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors – such as health, water, agriculture and renewable energy – and promote early warning systems that reduce the negative consequences of extreme events. In addition to limitations on early warning services, there is a serious lack of meteorological observations, particularly in Africa and the island states, which greatly reduces the accuracy of early warnings, not only in these areas, but throughout the world. And we must also invest in basic networks, “says Taalas.
Far from meeting the Paris targets
The aim of the Paris Agreement is to keep the global temperature rise this century well below 2 ° C relative to pre-industrial levels, and to continue efforts to limit that rise to 1.5 ° C. However, national emission reduction commitments – so-called nationally determined contributions – are currently well below what is necessary to achieve that goal . In any case, this message should not be an excuse to delay or abandon climate change mitigation actions, since the 1.5 ° C figure does not indicate, a priori, a ceiling from which a collapse will come. If you can limit the increase to 2 ° C instead of 3 ° C, it will be a gain, 3 will always be better than 3.5, and so on.
