"Hard but fair": Lonely and sick? Putin as an incalculable danger in the Ukraine conflict

At the ARD talk “Hart aber fair” Frank Plasberg’s guests talk about Ukraine, Russia – and of course Vladimir Putin.

Cologne – Frank Plasberg actually wanted to talk about the skyrocketing prices in Germany at “Hart aber Fair” on Monday (February 21, 2022). But in the evening Russian President Vladimir Putin shoved the presenter in the way and announced that he would recognize the eastern Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine as independent “people’s republics” – a step that is an extreme provocation for the West.

So Plasberg asked his guests in the evening: “Putin is serious – is a war about Ukraine starting now?” CDU foreign politician Norbert Röttgen made a clear statement right at the beginning of the ARD talk. He described Putin’s move as a “blatant breach of international law” and a “violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty”. With a warning tone, Röttgen said of Putin’s appearance, where he announced his recognition: “This speech is a war speech.”

ARD Talk “Hard but fair”: The FDP man can think of little

Russia expert Sarah Pagung agreed with the CDU politician, who unsuccessfully ran for party chairmanship in 2021 and 2022. “What’s next now? And I think we have to face the fact that the risk of war is enormous,” warned the political scientist urgently. The FDP parliamentary group leader Christian Dürr then only remembered an old phrase: The west must remain closed. However, he was not specific.

Is Putin really letting the situation in Ukraine escalate further? Röttgen was unable to give a concrete answer. “We have no real knowledge and assessment of the innermost circle of power. It will stop at some point.” Even the secret services could not provide adequate information. Putin is “very isolated” and sees himself as a “historical power,” said Röttgen.

Journalist and Kremlin expert Udo Lielischkies, who headed the ARD studio in Moscow from 2014 to 2018, pointed to an unpredictable danger in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He brought up the option of Putin’s possible serious illness. Lielischkies described the Russian President as a lonely man over whom most of the people around him had little influence.

ARD: Speculations about Putin’s state of health in “Hart but fair”

Whether there is any truth to these speculations cannot be said with certainty. Rumors about Putin’s health are repeated every year at regular intervals. The Russia expert summarized logically: “That is the problem of our debate here. The system is so opaque that we can only speculate and pick out small signs. But we can’t really get that close.” Like Röttgen, he didn’t want to look into the crystal ball.

Vassili Golod, who also works as a journalist and has family in Russia and Ukraine, stood out from the very sober talk round. He was visibly upset by the escalating conflict, but at the same time provided a crystal-clear analysis of the Russian population.

For years he has been moving in two parallel worlds. He constantly hears accusations against the West and NATO from his family in Russia. “When I deal with the facts myself, then I see that Crimea was annexed, then I see that this war has been going on in eastern Ukraine for eight years and then today I see this blatant step of recognizing these so-called people’s republics,” stated Golod. Although the facts are on the table, most people in Russia don’t get them at all. Golod is trying to persuade, “but that’s incredibly difficult.”

Röttgen aptly describes the Putin system in “Hart aber fair” on ARD

While the propaganda machine manipulates the population on a daily basis, the economy in Russia is on the rocks. There are outstanding minds working on modern technologies – in contrast to Europe, Russia has produced many of its own successful internet companies and social networks. Censorship, sanctions and the general lack of freedom put big obstacles in the way of the industry. In addition, after the end of the Soviet Union, many traditional sectors collapsed.

“Russia’s core problem is its weakness,” said Röttgen. Putin is desperate and “unable to modernize this country. Because if you modernize the country economically, you would be asking the question of power.” The Russian President is in a dead end that he is getting more and more into. Here the CDU man was absolutely right, because Vladimir Putin’s promise to lay the foundation for a flourishing economy did not come true. And now the president has to come up with plan B in order to politically legitimize him in office: striving for a large, militarily strong Russia, combined with a lot of nationalism. If he doesn’t achieve this goal either, his own population will have him by his throat – Putin’s greatest fear.

As an expert, Hermann Josef Tenhagen, editor-in-chief of the consumer magazine “Finanztip”, briefly discussed the inflation risks in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, but he played a subordinate role in the show. The financial expert was actually invited to the “Hart aber fair” program on inflation, which had been postponed at short notice.

Ukraine conflict does not cause a riot in “Hart aber fair” (ARD).

At the end, moderator Frank Plasberg presented his guests with a viewer commentary along the lines of “I don’t care what’s happening in Ukraine. Germany should stay out of it, otherwise it will only have disadvantages.” Vassili Golod was rightly stunned by this statement. “It hurts me to hear that,” said the rapporteur, who has Ukrainian-Russian roots. “Ukraine is a democratic country, an independent country that is much closer to our values (…) than Russia is.” He hears such comments again and again in Germany.

The ARD talk was never controversial or even rowdy – the topic was too serious for that and no guest came out with simple, clumsy answers. A few minutes after the end of the broadcast, Putin announced that he would send troops to eastern Ukraine. (tvd)