EconomyMexico gets rid of the drought for now, but...

Mexico gets rid of the drought for now, but it must solve the lack of water so as not to affect the crops

The lack of water is a growing problem that is beginning to be felt in areas of Mexico that previously did not suffer from this problem.

On July 4, the National Water Commission (Conagua) published the emergency declaration in the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF) in which it stated that Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Baja California and Baja California Sur will have an exceptional drought. .

The agency also warned of problems for Michoacán, Colima, Guerrero, Chipas, Tabasco, Jalisco and the south of Veracruz, states with an agricultural vocation in the country.

Implying?

Despite this warning, a decrease in agricultural production is not expected for this year; except in grains. However, the Conagua declaration is a wake-up call to resolve the problem as soon as possible.

In Mexico there are two harvests: the spring-summer one, which is temporary -with rains-, and when grains such as soybeans and basic grains are produced. The second is the autumn-winter harvest, where almost all production is through irrigation, explained Fernando Cruz, partner of the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA).

“The lack of rains has generated at this time a delay in the advance of sowing of the surface of basic grains. In the matter of beans, corn, if it does not rain enough, there are not enough characteristics to sow and we will see an affectation in the matter of grains, but we do not see such an affectation in the matter of fruits and vegetables, “said Cruz.

In the January-May period, the harvested area exceeded 3.2 million hectares, a level lower than the almost 3.4 million in the same period last year, and the production of corn, wheat, sorghum, soybeans, rice and beans was 12.46 million. tons, less than the 12.85 million last year, according to data from the GCMA.

Despite the decrease in grain production, the Ministry of Agriculture estimates an agricultural production of 273.3 million tons, which would represent 1.8% more compared to 2021 and 3.1% more compared to 2020, according to Agrifood Expectations of the Service of Agrifood and Fisheries Information (SIAP).

On the subject of grains, Cruz said, Mexico has always imported product. The harvest in the United States “seems to be coming in handy,” so there is no concern about the supply for Mexican consumption; In terms of fruits and vegetables, Mexico is the seventh largest producer in the world, so a reduction in production will impact exports, but not the local market.

Will it impact the price?

Mexico is a price taker and depends on international variations, although an impact on the price of these products is not expected.

In the case of fruits and vegetables, “it is likely that there will be a little more volatility in prices,” Fernando Cruz anticipated.

“There is already a drop in prices. They are above the average of the last few years, yes, but we are seeing that the inflationary pressures in a large part of the products are already decreasing”, so a close of 2023 is expected with inflation “less important, added the partner of the GCMA.

Solution to the water problem

During the first six months of 2022, the average rainfall in the states where the main dams for agricultural use in the country are located -Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, Nayarit, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas- was 22.2% lower than the average of the last five years, while the average precipitation was 34.3% lower than that of 2021, the GCMA noted.

Mexico does not have the best hydric conditions, commented Alejandro Gutiérrez, partner biologist at the consulting firm Alterpraxis.

Mexico is divided into three bands: in the northern part it has a low level of precipitation in general. The central zone (Bajío) has better hydric conditions than the north. And the southeast, which has higher volumes of precipitation and stored water, but the quality of the soil is not the best, Gutiérrez explained.

For example, the Yucatan Peninsula has limestone rock soil, which makes it unsuitable for agriculture, “despite the fact that it rains on the Peninsula, as it (rain) arrives, it filters,” said the partner of Alterpraxis.

Although measures were taken to deal with the water problem, these were insufficient. Hence, Mexico has agricultural regions such as Baja California, where production is more efficient than in others; the same happens with Sinaloa and Jalisco with important maize productions, with hybrid or creole species, more efficient that require less water.

There are techniques to make more efficient use of water such as the use of greenhouses, drip or sprinkler irrigation that can be programmed; in addition to hydroponic crops and transplants. “The case is investment. Who provides the resources?” said Alejandro Gutiérrez.

“The problem has a solution and is known. The problem is how many producers have the resources to invest in technology”, he insisted.

It is necessary to make substantive investments, which lead to the goal of better water use in cities and in the countryside, before there is a greater impact on food production and on people’s pockets, he said.

The Secretary of Agriculture, Víctor Villalobos, commented during the starting signal for the first avocados from Jalisco to the United States, that there is a commitment to caring for the environment, the aquifers and the groundwater.

He specified that this effort begins with avocado producers, but they will join other producers in the country for a better use of natural resources.

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