An international study led by scientists from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) has found that global sea level rise could exceed one meter (1 m) by 2100, and five meters by 2300 if not achieved. global emissions targets.
More than a study, we would be talking about a meta-analysis, since it used the previous estimates of more than 100 international experts for global changes in mean sea level in two climate scenarios: low and high emissions. By surveying a wide range of leaders in the field, the meta-analysis offers further assurance about their predictions for the ranges of future sea level rise.
This international study is based on the informed opinions of 106 sea level experts, published in Nature Partner Journals Climate and Atmospheric Science . And it is unflattering, given that projections of sea level rise exceed previous estimates from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Various scenarios
In a scenario where global warming is limited to 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels, experts estimated an increase of 0.5 meters by 2100 and 0.5 to 2 meters by 2300.
In an environment of high emissions, with 4.5 ºC, the experts estimated a greater increase of 0.6 to 1.3 meters for 2100 and 1.7 to 5.6 meters for the year 2300.
Sea level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to making informed mitigation and adaptation decisions.
According to Professor Benjamin Horton, lead author of the meta-analysis and acting president of the NTU Asian School of the Environment: “The complexity of sea level projections, and the large number of relevant scientific publications, make it difficult for those in charge of formulating policies get an overview of the state of the science To get this overview, it is helpful to survey leading experts on expected sea level rise, which provides a broader picture of future scenarios and informs policy makers to that they can prepare the necessary measures “.
The trouble spots
Climate change experts identified the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets as the biggest sources of uncertainty. These ice sheets are an important indicator of climate change and the driver of sea level rise.
Satellite-based measurements show that ice sheets are melting at an accelerating rate. However, experts also noted that the magnitude and impact of sea level rise could be limited if we successfully reduce emissions.
Will there be time for prevention? Or are we only left with adaptation?
These questions are difficult to solve. We know that a rise in sea level will occur in the future, but we are not sure how large it will be, depending on different emission scenarios, as recalled by Dr. Andra Garner, assistant professor of environmental sciences at Rowan University in the United States. States: “There are large differences in the number of sea level rise experts projecting low emissions compared to high emissions. This provides great hope for the future, as well as strong motivation to act now to avoid the worst impacts. severe sea level rise “.
More than prevention, the air physicist, disseminator and meteorologist at Meteored José Miguel Viñas, highlights the term ‘adaptation’. Asked about the sea level rise issue a few months ago, he replied to Very Interesting: “The weather predictions regarding sea level rise are disturbing. We have to think that many of the big cities with many millions of inhabitants are coastal; there are many people living in areas that are very vulnerable to these impacts that will surely occur in the coming years and decades ”. And he added: “We must try to take preventive measures but, above all, adaptation.”
For her part, in the opinion of Dr. Andrea Dutton, professor in the Department of Geosciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison: “One of the key conclusions of this study is that our actions today can make a profound difference in how much our coasts will recede. in the future. That knowledge empowers us because it means that we can choose a better outcome through our actions. “
