An international study in which Spanish scientists participate has shown that the heat wave that affected Europe in the summer of 2010 was warmer and more intense than that of 2003. The research indicates thatlarge heat waves like 2010 could happen again from 2050and increase its frequency towards the end of the century as a consequence of global warming.
The team of scientists, including Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, president of the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), describes the hydrometeorological situation that accompanied the 2010 heat wave, and shows that this wave, which affected Europe, and especially to Russia, it was warmer and more extensive than that of 2003. “The difference between 2003 and 2010 was, in large part, due to the intensity, spatial extent and persistence of high pressures of subtropical origin”, he points out. Barriopedro. “Eastern and Western Europe have not experienced a situation like this in the past 140 years. Furthermore,the summer of 2010 was very hot and probably the hottest since at least 1500“, Add.
Theprobabilityabout whata heat wave in Europe similar to that of 2010 reoccurring is “very small until the middle of the XXI century”. However, “the fact that it is a very unlikely situation does not mean that it cannot happen shortly,” says the researcher. In the second half, the risk will increase rapidly as a consequence, above all, of global warming and the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. At the end of the 21st century, a situation like that of 2003 could be repeated once every two summers in western Europe, while a heat wave with the intensity of that of 2010 could occur with a frequency of one or two summers per decade.
Mega heat wave in Europe and Russia
The 2010 heat wave, which affected eastern Europe and western Russia during the summer, was characterized by avery intense anticyclonic circulation, of great extension and persistence. Its maximum intensity was recorded between July and the beginning of August, and the high temperatures rose 10ºC above normal: “In Moscow, for example, the temperature records of at least the last 140 years were broken several times, and it was established a new record of about 38ºC, “says Barriopedro.
In central and western Russia there weredrought conditions, with accumulated precipitation deficits since January 2010, and an acceleration of snow melt. “Both processes reduced the water content of the soil, a potential factor for amplifying heat waves,” emphasizes the expert. This mega-heat wave caused “more than 55,000 deaths in Russia, extensive fires out of control, an annual harvest loss of 35%, and a total economic decline of about 1% of Russia’s gross domestic product.” , according to the authors.
The factors that cause a heat wave vary according to the region and the specific case. In Europe, these waves are associated with anticyclonic systems and with an increase in temperatures due to solar heating, as well as with a transport of warm air towards medium and high latitudes, and a low system of high pressures. ? These mechanisms cause the regions under the anticyclone to experience high temperatures. The intensity and effects of the heat wave are accentuated depending on the intensity of the anticyclone and its persistence ?, explains Barriopedro. According to the researcher, the best prevention measure is “mitigation” -the control and reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases-, although “it does not reduce the probability of a mega-heat wave to zero.”
