In less than 40 years, the planet’s temperature will rise between 1.4ºC and 3ºC on average. Nature Geoscience publishes the calculations of an international team of researchers who warn of the rapid evolution of global warming if greenhouse gas emissions are not mitigated.
The forecast of an increase in temperature on Earth has been made with simulations of thousands of different climate models, according to the SINC agency. The simulation has been carried out with techniques capable of combining the variations in local temperatures of the last half century, because it is assumed that the real data from the past are the best to carry out the estimation. The results of this system agree with the evaluation of the experts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations.
There are still three aspects of climate uncertain for scientists : the sensitivity of the climate balance, the rate of heat uptake of the oceans, and the historical pressure of aerosols. According to the research, previous calculation models underestimated these uncertainties. Part of the error was due to the correlation between the sensitivity of the climate balance and the role of aerosols, which tends to overestimate the heat absorption capacity of the ocean.
