Although intuitively it would be expected that in the future the number of inhabitants of our planet would continue to grow, according to the latest model, elaborated by researchers from the Autonomous University of Madrid , the population of our planet will stabilize in the middle of this century, around of 2050.
When making predictions about the evolution of the world population in the future, both birth and death rates must be taken into account. As medical advances and increased life expectancy have lowered mortality in recent years, it seemed that the world was moving towards overpopulation. However, the truth is that the number of births has also decreased, and is expected to continue to do so in the future. According to estimates by the National Organization of the United Nations (UN), the world population in 2100 will move between 15.8 billion people for the highest estimate, and 6.2 billion for the lowest , a figure even below the 7,000 million today.
The new work, which is published in the journal Simulation , confirms the lower estimate and, based on the results, predicts that from 2050 the Earth’s population will stagnate and even decline. To reach these conclusions, the researchers have used population series data provided by the UN and applied mathematical equations that are used in other fields of science. ” It is a model that describes the evolution of a two-level system in which there is a probability of passing from one to the other, ” explained Félix Muñoz, one of the authors, to SINC.
Predictions confirm that birth rates will continue to decline. In fact, the fertility rate has fallen by more than 40% since 1950. “ This work is one more element of judgment for the debate, although we do not go into the important economic, demographic and political consequences that stabilization and aging can have. of the world population ”, concluded Muñoz.
