(Expansion) – If we want to prevent the planet from facing catastrophic overheating, we must accelerate an energy revolution and go beyond the rhetoric of political compromise. A good starting point for planning actions is the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which gives us the steps on how to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
What is the route to net zero emissions?
The report is the main precedent for this year’s climate summit (COP26). In this sense, the roadmap aims to guide decision-makers to drive an emission reduction in the right direction and speed. The analysis details which are the technologies necessary for each economic sector to achieve the goals in different stages, and thus prevent the global temperature from rising by more than 1.5 ° C.
30 years from now, the energy system must be radically different from what we have now. For this, 8% less global demand is required, despite economic and population growth. In addition, oil, gas and coal should contribute only 20% of the supply (currently they cover 80%). This implies that renewables must represent around 70% of supply in 2050.
For those who thought that natural gas would be the fuel of the transition, that role will last fewer years than expected, since its share is required to be reduced by 88%. In addition, structural adjustments will be able to generate 25 million new net jobs linked to the new energy sectors and clean industries.
How to succeed to reach the goal?
Demand for fossil fuels can only be reduced if coal, oil and natural gas are no longer exploited as of this year. The economic needs of these energy sources can be met with the expansion of electrification, which will cover half of the global energy demand in 2050 from renewable sources, mainly.
This will involve doubling power grids over two decades, something that took 130 years to achieve. To ensure the stability of the grid, the development of the necessary batteries is expected to be ready around 2030. Although hydrocarbons will still be required, this will be possible thanks to the capture and storage of their emissions.
Another pillar of decarbonization will be hydrogen, mainly derived from renewable energy, which will generate 20% of global electricity in 2050. On the other hand, new bioenergy will be required that does not compete with the use of land to produce food and serve as compensation of emissions for polluting sectors, but that do not have the necessary technology to decarbonise.
With regard to transportation, the vehicle fleet is expected to double by 2050. Within 15 years there could be no further sales of internal combustion vehicles, which will be displaced by electric vehicles. In the case of heavy transport, hydrogen and ammonia are expected to be your main clean fuel. However, this sector, like that of aviation and maritime transport, still requires technological advances for its absolute decarbonisation.
An additional measure that must be accelerated immediately is the energy efficiency of buildings, of which 85% will have to be decarbonized in 2050. In contrast, the industrial sector will take the longest to decarbonize because it must wait for the advance of electrification and innovations to stop relying on fossil fuels. In particular, the steel, cement and chemical industries are the most relevant because they represent 70% of the carbon emissions in the sector.
What is the value of this roadmap?
The IEA roadmap is relevant in three respects. The first is that it is a guide with practical implications for investors, corporations and governments. It is not about propaganda, but about feasible, cost-efficient and socially acceptable actions. The second is that the need to stop new investments in oil, gas and coal is accepted. Finally, it is clarified that the necessary technology for the energy transition does not exist, but the route to promote the developments that is needed is described.
Editor’s Note: José Luis Reséndiz is a PhD Researcher in the Sustainable Finance Program at the University of Oxford and Founder of ESG Latam. Follow him on Twitter as The opinions published in this column belong exclusively to the author.
