(Expansion) – In its controversial cover of May 27, the prestigious and influential magazine The Economist noted in its Latin American edition that “President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is a danger to Mexican democracy” and instructed the United States to “pay attention to progressive authoritarianism in your backyard. “
The world is heading towards the spread of authoritarian populisms that have made the democratic nature shrink. Open Democracy points out that we are going through a third wave of this type, while Latinobarómetro has described it as “diabetes,” an invisible disease that slowly eats away at democratic life. In this context, the question is obligatory: will Kamala Harris pronounce on the quality of democracy in Mexico during her visit on June 8?
Let’s put things in context. The president of the United States, Joe Biden, repelled with all his being the chaotic, eccentric, unilateral and imperial-tinged presidency of Donald Trump, the tenant of the White House who became an autocrat in the most consolidated democracy in the world, that that promoted the coup to the Capitol, the unprecedented day that attacked the democratic pillars on January 6.
With this in hand, the Democratic president has remarked time and again that “our generation will be marked by competition between democracies and autocracies.” For this reason, one of his campaign proposals has been to strengthen the coalition of liberal democracies in the world and to convene an international summit on the health of democracies.
So will the United States be the counterweight that Mexico needs to stop AMLO’s undemocratic drift? For the moment, and given the current circumstances, it seems unlikely that Washington will press this button of enormous sensitivity for the Mexican government and the so-called fourth transformation. The answer is anchored to reasons of internal politics of the United States.
Let us remember that at the end of his first 100 days of government, Joe Biden obtained his worst category evaluated in immigration matters due to the record numbers of arrests on his southern border that registered their highest level in 20 years, coupled with the unseen explosion of the crisis of unaccompanied migrant children; precisely the migratory deterrence effort that robs him of his dream ahead of the midterm elections in November 2022.
It is Kamala Harris’s visit to the National Palace that occurs when the Republican and Trumpeter Commission directly blames the Biden-Harris ticket for engendering the border crisis and propagating open and porous borders, as a result of the mutation of the Democratic approach, whose This inclination favors a more compassionate and understanding immigration system. It is this situation that favors President AMLO, because his room for maneuver will be widened in the framework of the bilateral relationship.
Precisely the White House has no appetite to anger, displease or annoy AMLO. They need it. Therefore, their interest will be guided by showing the muscle of controlling the southern border, in order to minimize political attacks against the president of the United States in this area.
In other words, the American Union will not be the desired counterweight to curb the “false messiah” of which The Economist magazine speaks. At least not right now. We must wait for the migration crisis to subside.
Including the absence of a robust economic policy in the midst of the pandemic, the drop of 8.5% of the Mexican GDP in 2020 and the generation of up to 10.7 million people who fell into extreme poverty in terms of wages (Coneval) have prevented stopping the migratory flows that worry Washington so much.
Certainly, the visit of Kamala Harris to Mexico occurs when the bilateral relationship seems tense and friction because the agenda of the president of Mexico is contravening the national interest of the United States. There are strong disagreements regarding democracy, climate obligations, energy commitments and large investments suspended due to the abrupt change in the rules of the game and violations of the T-MEC.
This train crash is also palpable in the thorny and delicate security agenda. While AMLO prioritizes the request to stop the illegal arms trade to Mexico – 70% comes from the United States – there are separate disputes regarding the Merida Initiative, the fight against drug trafficking, the exoneration of General Cienfuegos, the change of express rules. to regulate agents such as the FBI, CIA and DEA and the possibility that the United States will once again put on the table the designation of the Mexican cartels as terrorist groups.
While the bilateral agenda between Trump and AMLO turned out to be highly functional to the interests of the moment and limited to the issue of migration under certain economic conditions, Joe Biden is a fervent supporter of expanding the platform of affairs and transactions with Mexico: the promotion of human rights, democracy, the fight against climate change and corruption. All of them are issues that uncomfortable and challenge the Mexican president.
Editor’s note: Rina Mussali is an international analyst and author of the book “ AMLO and the World, why the third was the charm .” Follow her on, and on. The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author alone.
