The probability is very small, 1 in 1,750, but it exists. Scientists from the American space agency have improved their forecast of the orbital trajectory of Bennu, a space rock the size of the Empire State Building, which was visited by the OSIRIS-REX spacecraft.
The probability is slightly higher than before
According to NASA, the new estimates suggest a slightly higher probability of impact than before, although the difference is not serious enough to worry about. It is true that it will increase on September 24, 2182, 150 years from now. Although the object does not pose a threat to our planet at this time, scientists need to know the exact trajectory of Bennu, to predict how it will affect our planet.
“In 2135, the asteroid Bennu will approach Earth. Although the near-Earth object will not pose a danger to our planet at that time, scientists must understand Bennu’s exact trajectory during that encounter to predict how Earth’s gravity will alter the asteroid’s trajectory around the sun and affect the danger. of [future] land impact. Using NASA’s Deep Space Network and state-of-the-art computer models, the scientists were able to significantly reduce the uncertainties in Bennu’s orbit, determining that its total impact probability during the year 2300 is approximately 1 in 1,750 (or 0.057%). ). The researchers were also able to identify September 24, 2182 as the single most significant date in terms of a potential 1 impact, with an impact probability of 1 in 2,700 (or approximately 0.037%), ”explained NASA officials.
Planetary scientist Lindley Johnson of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office said at the press conference: “I don’t think we have to do anything with Bennu.”
Despite this, Bennu and another asteroid known as (29075) 1950 DA remain the two most dangerous asteroids to Earth that scientists know of.
Regarding the first, the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft met with Bennu at the end of 2018 and landed on the surface of the asteroid in late 2020, successfully collecting a sample, discovering that Bennu is very dark and very old and the analysis provided data. precision to better predict the orbit of the near-Earth object around the Sun.
Bennu will therefore approach in 2135 to about 200,000 kilometers more or less , or about half the distance from the Earth to the Moon. The exact distance it passes is crucial, because Earth’s gravity will throw Bennu in its wake. If it passes a particular distance at a certain time, what planetary scientists call a “gravitational keyhole,” then it will be sent on a trajectory that could intersect the Earth about half a century later. Although a direct collision with an asteroid of this size would not cause a planet-wide extinction event, it would cause great devastation.
Referencia: Ephemeris and hazard assessment for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu based on OSIRIS-REx data. Davide Farnocchia et al. Icarus, 10 August 2021, 114594. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2021.114594
