Numerous experts assume that the corona virus will remain permanent – but not large waves of infections.
Berlin / Frankfurt – The Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus will remain, even if the majority of the world’s population should be vaccinated – the majority of experts now assume this. The much-mentioned herd immunity does not change that. It means that large waves of infection become unlikely, but not that the virus will go away. The Charité virologist Christian Drosten recently told the Swiss online magazine Republik: “That was a misunderstanding from the start, if you understood it to mean that herd immunity means: 70 percent become immune – regardless of whether through vaccination or infection – and the remaining 30 percent will then no longer have any contact with the virus. “
Disappearance is also made unlikely by the appearance of more and more new variants. It will therefore be important to permanently monitor the spread of known and newly emerging mutants – on the one hand, in order to be able to adapt vaccines and, on the other hand, in order to detect the beginning of larger waves of propagation at an early stage.
Virologist Christian Drosten explains: Why Corona will not go away
As this is a global problem, an international structure is necessary, explained Isabella Eckerle, head of the Emerging Viruses research group at the University of Geneva. “Particularly those regions in which access to vaccines is limited and which have to wait a long time for the population to be vaccinated and in which at the same time largely uncontrolled virus circulation takes place represent risk areas for new variants.” Wildlife populations are included.
Richard Neher, head of the research group Evolution of Viruses and Bacteria at the Biozentrum of the University of Basel, emphasized that the influenza monitoring system for the annual flu waves could serve as a model. “There has been a global network here for years that collects influenza viruses and measures their incidence.” Every six months there is a recommendation for the composition of the flu vaccine. Regular updates of the vaccines will probably also be necessary for Covid-19.
The current status is that the available vaccines against variants such as Alpha and Delta are somewhat less effective in terms of infections, but still protect against very severe courses very well, explained Annelies Wilder-Smith, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Corona vaccinations as the most important measure in the pandemic
“Since lowering the death rate is the most important public health goal in the current phase of the pandemic, the focus should continue to be on vaccinating a larger proportion of the population quickly rather than providing booster doses.” This is even more important than the world is not once had enough vaccines to give everyone even a first dose, said Wilder-Smith. A quick vaccination of the population is also the best strategy to reduce the development of questionable variants.
“Globally, the most important measure is the fastest and broadest possible vaccination, so that the virus is given less opportunity to create new variants through evolutionary pressure,” emphasized Isabella Eckerle. Fortunately, it seems to be the case that the same mutations often arise in the variants – the virus may only have a limited repertoire of mutations in order to adapt better. “If vaccines against variants that cover these mutations are also available in the near future, a fairly stable situation could arise in which the occurrence of more and more new variants is slowed down.”
If, above all, the groups with a high risk of becoming seriously ill are largely vaccinated, this also means relief for the clinics – and an end to “pandemic thinking”, as the President of the German Society for Internal Intensive Care Medicine and Emergency Medicine, Christian Karagiannidis, said on Tuesday ( 06/16/2021) said. In the future, Covid-19 will become a disease of everyday hospital life and lose the horror of a ripple pandemic – one is going “into a chronic phase”. (dpa)
