(Expansion) – Global geopolitics awaits an infallible appointment on June 16 when the first face-to-face meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and White House tenant Joe Biden takes place. Although the relationship between Washington and Moscow appears stiff and discrepant, no international political actor in his right mind is in the best interest of poisoning bilateral relations, which are essential to guarantee collective global security in a multipolar world.
Trump and Putin hit it off in a highly functional relationship woven based on their autocratic and secretive vocation that avoided open confrontation on issues such as Ukraine, Syria, Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential elections, and presumably in 2020, the trustworthiness of government agencies. intelligence, or even possible Russian rewards for the murder of American soldiers in Afghanistan. After all, both leaders understood each other, and there was even a kind of admiration of the former American president for the Russian.
On US soil, Trump ruled with imperial overtones, degrading the system of checks and balances and attacking the Capitol after a non-existent electoral fraud, but which fueled his narrative as a victimizer. Precisely this undemocratic setback will seal Joe Biden’s foreign policy. In the previous meetings that he will hold before his meeting with Putin – namely, the G7, NATO and European Union summits – he will seek to endorse the coalition of liberal democracies in the world in the face of the new authoritarian wave.
On the other hand, Putin’s authoritarian drive widens in evidence. The Kremlin completely dominates the political spectrum, with the State Duma and judges approving all directives issued by the Presidential Office; Prominent opponents have been imprisoned, in addition to approving constitutional changes with which Putin could extend his stay in power until 2036, backed by a plebiscite. In Biden’s eyes, Putin is an adversary for the United States: a Caesarist man who attacks the foundations of liberal democracies, destabilizes the West and contravenes the national interest of the American Union.
Based in Geneva, the first personal meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will be rough. This is how the atmosphere marks it: the largest Russian military arsenal deployed on its border with Ukraine, the clash over Putin’s support for the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko – who clung to a sixth presidential term – his geopolitical alliance with China in the UN Security Council, their marked differences in Syria, the White House propping up against Russian cyberattacks and hacking in the Colonial Pipeline case (one of the largest fuel distribution networks in the United States), as well as the poisoning and arrest of Alexei Navalny, the anti-corruption activist and the most prominent face of the Russian opposition.
To this we must add Moscow’s withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty in reciprocity to Washington’s exit from said treaty in Trump’s time – which takes on greater importance after Belarus’ decision to force a commercial plane to land in Minsk to arrest dissident Roman Protasevich.
Likewise, the Russian muscle is allowed to touch with the strategic drills and ballistic tests in Arctic waters, maritime claims linked to the North Sea route and the intention of increasing its military footprint in a sanctuary region of world heritage and through the closer relations and military cooperation agreements with a wide range of African countries.
Unsurprisingly, Biden has already responded. In addition to calling him a “murderer” on national television (in relation to the Navalny case), he has imposed new sanctions on the Kremlin that deepen the economic crisis, unemployment and fuel internal unrest. In addition, Biden could come empowered to meet him if he strengthens Western unity at the G7 and NATO summits, particularly on issues such as the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, NATO defense spending, and rapprochement with Ukraine and Belarus.
In NATO, for example, the new 2030 vision calls on the organization to be more global and militarily strong, and even foster a two-way approach of deterrence and dialogue in the face of geopolitical rivals, which undoubtedly threatens the belt of Russian security. In this regard, Putin pointed out at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum: “We have no disagreements with the United States, we only have one disagreement: their desire to slow down our development.”
It should not be forgotten that behind the defiant and provocative Vladimir Putin hides the historical aspiration to regain the space that corresponds to Russia on the international stage, to enhance its status as a global power and defend parity in international relations, as well as safeguard its area of domain and influence. This will be the currency of the transaction in your meeting with Joe Biden.
To maintain a minimum of stability, the following exchange token must be accommodated: Putin will have to understand that Biden will not be complacent, and Biden will have to read Putin as Russia’s strong and legitimate card in matters of order and security.
Editor’s note: Rina Mussali is an international analyst and author of the book “ AMLO and the World, why the third was the charm .” Follow her on, and on. The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author alone.
