A research group from the Carlos III University of Madrid, the University of Salford (England), the Complutense University and the Rey Juan Carlos University has analyzed which countries will obtain the most medals in the next Olympic Games. According to his prediction, Brazil and Great Britain will be the ones that will grow the most in the number of metals, with Australia and Russia the most affected.
The econometric study has indicated that Brazil will be the revelation country of the next Olympic Games, predicting an increase of 14 more medals, which would increase the number of metals in the Rio de Janeiro country from 15 to 29. For its part, Great Britain, according to the data analyzed, would go from 47 medals obtained in the last Beijing games to 56. But how have the researchers reached this conclusion?
To carry out the study, five main variables have been taken into account: the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of each country, the number of medals obtained in past Olympics, if it is the organizing country or the next one that will do so, if it is a country with a tradition of planned economy and public spending on sport. This last variable, in addition, ” is what gives a differential character to our work compared with other prediction groups since it allows us not only to improve our predictions, but also to estimate the additional cost that an additional medal entails for a country “, explains Professor Juan de Dios Tena, from the UC3M Department of Statistics.
Spain will maintain the number of successes
Spain, based on these values, would obtain one more medal than in the previous international competition, going from 18 metals to 19. The countries that will decrease the number of medals obtained the most will be Russia, which would obtain 11 fewer medals and Australia, which would go from 46 to 38 trophies, that is, 8 less than in the last Olympic Games.
In many cases, the achievement of sporting successes is seen as a success of the country’s economy itself. However, spending and public investment in sport has a lot to do with these results. As the researchers point out, ” it is no coincidence that traditionally communist countries have obtained a significantly higher number of medals than democratic countries with a lesser degree of coercion from the state over their citizens,” they give as an example.
