Corona: Incidence continues to rise – research group sees Germany before the start of the fourth wave

For the tenth day in a row, the incidence of corona infections increases. Can the vaccination campaign save Germany from a fourth wave? The news ticker.

Update from July 17, 11:51 a.m .: The seven-day incidence of corona infections continues to rise. But is that just as worrying as it was a year ago? After all, more and more people in Germany are now vaccinated against the corona virus. In two federal states, Bremen and Saarland, even the 50 percent mark was cracked on Saturday with the full corona vaccinations.

The Rhineland-Palatinate Prime Minister Malu Dreyer (SPD *) is pushing for a “new warning value” to assess the Corona situation in Germany in view of the advancing vaccinations. With increasing vaccination rates, the seven-day incidence is much less informative today than it was six months ago, the SPD politician told the newspapers of the Funke media group on Saturday. It is important to increase vaccination rates. “And the federal states must come to a new warning value with the federal government. We should agree quickly on a nationwide regulation. ”The incidence should not be ignored, but it should be linked to the numbers of hospital cases.

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Corona: Incidence continues to rise – research group sees Germany before the start of the fourth wave

First report : Berlin – Since July 6, the number of coronavirus infections in Germany has been increasing day by day, including on weekends. The Robert Koch Institute reported 1,608 new infections on Saturday morning and, accordingly, a seven-day incidence of 9.4. The day before it was still at 8.6. The city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen are particularly affected.

Research group calculates corona forecast: fourth wave also in hospitals

A research group at the TU Berlin rates this increase in the seven-day incidence * as “worrying”. The relative increases are high. According to dpa, your calculations see us at the beginning of a fourth wave. Based on modeling, the group of scientists expects that a fourth wave will not pass the hospitals either. “According to our simulations, an exponential increase in hospital numbers will start in October.”

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“If the current Corona * development continues, it will start even earlier and then intensify again in October,” says the new report by the group led by mobility researcher Kai Nagel to the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The team uses anonymized Berlin cell phone data to model the infection process. According to him, the results can at least be transferred to other large cities.

Corona in Germany: “Vaccination, vaccination, vaccination” – employer president warns of autumn

The model results “under all currently realistic conditions a fourth wave among adults, which will be intensified with the relocation of activities indoors in autumn.” Only if the vaccines against the Delta variant * worked significantly better than currently known or if a vaccination quota of 95 percent is achieved, there is no fourth wave in the simulations.

“We have to keep vaccinating, vaccinating, vaccinating so that the situation can stabilize further”

We are currently still a long way from that in Germany, partly because the willingness to vaccinate is declining in many federal states. “We have to be careful not to gamble away what we have achieved,” warns employer president Rainer Dulger. “We have to keep vaccinating, vaccinating, vaccinating, so that the situation stabilizes further,” said the President of the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations (BDA) of the German Press Agency in Berlin.

According to the dashboard of the Robert Koch Institute, 59.5% of Germans have already received their first vaccination, 45.3% of people in Germany are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. (dpa / vs) * Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA

List of rubric lists: © dpa / Robert Michael