Corona pandemic soon over thanks to Omikron? WHO Europe gives hope – yet amazing March forecast

The RKI again reports a high for the corona numbers in Germany. According to WHO assessments, however, the omicron variant could lead to the end of the pandemic. The news ticker.

Update from January 23, 6:07 a.m .: There is a clear upward trend in the incidence in Germany on Monday. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported a value of 840.3 on Monday morning and thus a new high. For comparison: the day before the value was 806.8. A week ago, the nationwide incidence was 528.2 (previous month: 222.7).

Within one day, 63,393 new corona infections and 28 other deaths were recorded, as can be seen from the Covid 19 dashboard (as of January 24, 6:07 a.m.). Experts expect the number of corona cases to be unreported. The test capacity and health authorities are increasingly working at the limit.

Corona in Germany: WHO boss Kluge with an amazing March forecast

Update from January 23, 6:32 p.m .: Although the omicron variant is significantly more contagious, serious illnesses are less common. But is the pandemic with this mutation already coming to an end? The European head of the WHO, Hans Kluge, thinks this is at least possible. It is “plausible” that Europe is “moving towards the end of the pandemic” with Omikron, the Italian Corriere della Sera quoted him as saying on Sunday. According to Kluge’s analysis, 60 percent of Europeans could become infected by March. With the new variant, a new phase has been initiated – a phase that could lead to the end of the pandemic.

Before MPK: Söder against tightening

Update from January 23, 1:27 p.m .: In Bavaria, the administrative court overturned the 2G rule in retail. The 2G rule has also been lifted in Lower Saxony. Prime Minister Markus Söder spoke out against stricter corona measures before the Corona summit on Monday. “Bavaria will not support any tightening in the Prime Ministers’ Conference, but will adapt the rules in individual places,” said Söder of the Augsburger Allgemeine . “We want to enable more participation in culture, in sports and in youth work.” Söder emphasized: “Omikron is not Delta, so we cannot transfer the measures 1:1 from one mutation to the other.” The decisive one The benchmark is the burden on the health system.

Expert council criticizes thin data situation in Germany

Update from January 23, 11:51 a.m .: The Federal Government’s Corona Expert Council criticizes that the data situation in the monitoring of the pandemic in Germany is too thin and calls for “urgent measures for improved data collection and digitization”.

Even two years after the start of the pandemic, there is still no access to some important, current care data, according to a recent statement by the committee. The omicron wave amplifies and clarifies the deficit.

“A real-time overview of all available hospital beds with current occupancy, including those outside of intensive care, is urgently needed.”

Update from January 23, 10:56 a.m .: The first city in NRW uses the new Corona test and quarantine regulation. From Monday (January 24th), Cologne will no longer send anyone into quarantine*.

Incidence rises above 800 – expert council calls for “strict implementation of previous measures”

First report from January 23, 2022

Berlin – The Omicron variant is spreading at a breathtaking pace. The expert council of the federal government is now calling for preparations for possible further steps.

“The highly dynamic infection process currently requires the maintenance and strict implementation of the previous measures,” says a statement published on Saturday evening (January 22). If, as a result of further increasing incidences*, critical levels are reached, for example in terms of hospital admissions, further infection control measures could become necessary. “These should therefore now be prepared in such a way that they can be implemented without delay.”

Corona case numbers in Germany (as of January 23, 2022)

Corona in Germany: Too much dynamism in the current wave

Both contact restrictions and booster vaccinations are necessary to slow down the dynamics of the current wave and to protect the health system and critical infrastructure, according to the unanimous recommendation of the 19 council members. It is therefore important to intensify the booster campaign. Due to the existing contact reductions and the prudent behavior of the citizens, the internationally observed steep increase in the number of infections in Germany was initially slowed down. However, the Expert Council expects a further increase. At the top, 7-day incidences “of several thousand could be reached regionally”.

“Accordingly, if the incidence continues to rise, a large number of hospital admissions are to be expected”

The extent of the hospital burden will depend crucially on the incidences in unvaccinated adults and those over 50 years of age. These are still comparatively low, but infections have been entered in the group of older people. The hospitalization rate is lower than expected for the Delta variant, but would have to be around 10 times lower than last winter in order to compensate for the expected high number of cases and not to overload the health system. Such a strong reduction is currently not to be expected despite vaccinations.

Corona vaccination rate in Germany (Source: Impfdashboard.de)

“Accordingly, a large number of hospital admissions can be expected if the incidence continues to rise,” writes the committee. With an increase in basic immunity in the population and a decrease in the number of new infections and hospitalization rates, the contact restrictions should be gradually reduced again. In the long term, it is urgently necessary “to close the remaining immunity gaps in society through vaccinations, as otherwise strong waves of infection and disease are to be expected cyclically.

Virologist Christian Drosten warns of dangerous mutations – a mixed form of delta and omicron variants could arise. (ml/dpa)*Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA