In the corona pandemic, the number of Omicron cases is skyrocketing. However, virologist Klaus Stöhr gives hope. The 63-year-old assumes that many will be immunized by autumn. Practicing at the RKI
Fulda/Seeshaupt – In an interview with the Fuldaer Zeitung, virologist Klaus Stöhr speaks about the benefits of Corona* measures, compulsory vaccination and an end to the pandemic. The 63-year-old expert estimates that with the omicron wave, 40 to 50 percent of people could gain natural immunity. Most recently, Stöhr’s colleague Hendrik Streeck had already called for a new test strategy * and explained that it was no longer about preventing every infection.
The calls for easing are getting louder. Neighboring countries are making faster progress than we are. Is politics in Germany too cautious?
Ultimately, it is a matter of judgment how to translate the risk assessment into countermeasures. In doing so, proportionality must be maintained. As serious as the corona infection was, it will soon be comparable to other respiratory diseases.
Some countries no longer see it as a national threat. They have adapted the measures to the changed situation. In Germany, there is hesitation, without a clear perspective and target parameters for a gradual de-escalation. It is surprising that measures such as 2G or 2G-plus are still being adhered to.
Corona: Virologist Stöhr criticizes RKI harshly – “It was a double own goal”
Didn’t these measures work?
I’ll put it this way: If you pour a bucket of water into the sea, the sea is fuller. There is certainly an effect, but is the collateral damage justified compared to the effect? Ultimately, there is the question of efficiency, i.e. how many infections can be prevented with what effort, and what is the price?
Neither restaurants nor retail have been noticed as hotspots in the last 18 months. And that despite the fact that 52 million customer contacts take place in retail every day. There are interesting figures from two retail chains in Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony between Christmas and New Year’s Eve.
What exactly was measured?
In Schleswig-Holstein, where 2G-plus applied, the chains had a drop in sales of 10 to 15 percent. Without 2G-plus, Lower Saxony recorded an increase of one percent compared to 2019. The measures actually have an effect: in the tills of the retailers. The question remains fundamental: How to balance the health benefits and the social and economic harm?
In the case of contact tracing, one reacted and at least partially suspended it. One of the measures to look at is contact quarantine. How long and for whom should it apply? Does it make any sense at all when there are already so many asymptomatic cases?
If the measures that were used to largely exclude the unvaccinated from public life were intended to achieve the vaccination goals, then this has failed. Why are the vaccination rates in other countries higher than ours?
Very good sociological studies show that the acceptance of vaccinations depends fundamentally on trust in the government. Crisis communication, which in my view is underground, certainly plays a central role here. The information vacuum left by the government is certainly one reason for the cacophony in scientific reporting of the crisis. This has certainly also contributed to the exaggerated fear scenario in Germany, which individual politicians and also some scientists who are not very familiar with the fight against epidemics have fired again and again.
Now there is a discussion about increasing the rate with a general obligation to vaccinate. What do you make of it?
In general, it can be a good way to increase vaccination rates. But she is not without alternatives. In addition, it is not without side effects. At the moment I do not think that general vaccination is expedient.
About the person: Professor Dr. Klaus Stoehr
professor dr Klaus Stöhr (63) worked for the World Health Organization (WHO) for 15 years until 2007. He was head of the Global Influenza Program and responsible for determining vaccine strains for worldwide influenza vaccine production.
He also did research on Sars before joining Novartis in 2007 for vaccine development. In the corona pandemic, the virologist and epidemiologist made a name for himself because in November 2020 he spoke out against lockdowns and an incidence target of 50. He has been working as a freelance consultant since 2018.
What would the alternatives be?
Sociologists and psychologists would have to step in here, for example to be able to make targeted vaccination offers with better knowledge of the vaccine skeptics. Why does Bremen have such a high vaccination rate? Many of those who do not get vaccinated are more vaccine skeptics than opponents. If you know which sections of the population are involved, you can address them specifically. But even when you get to the point that compulsory vaccination is the best way, there are still questions.
And which would be?
Why does an 18-year-old student with an expected low level of personal risk need to be vaccinated near the end of the pandemic? Wouldn’t mandatory vaccination, if it were actually the best and proportionate means, be more effective for the vulnerable groups with the highest burden of disease? One would also have to think about a time-limited vaccination requirement.
And there is also the fact that compulsory vaccination would not take effect before the end of winter. It would be too late for this season. With the omicron wave, 40 to 50 percent may gain natural immunity.
Corona expert Stöhr: Vaccination not effective
Highs are currently being reported every day in the number of new infections. How do you assess the situation in the hospitals?
The incidences are not relevant for the risk assessment. They have decoupled from the burden of disease and are becoming estimates. The virus circulates freely in the population. 50 percent of the patients who test positive in the hospital are not there because of Corona. People are randomly tested. You don’t fight asymptomatic cases of illness.
Will we still have a pandemic at all?
Yes, due to the high potential for disease among the two to three million people over 60 who are not yet immunized or have recovered. The pandemic will not stop until everyone has natural immunization. Vaccination helps reduce damage on the way to the end of the pandemic. But everyone will get infected, ideally if you have good immune protection. That’s the purpose of vaccination and not that you don’t get corona at all.
Ultimately, in your opinion, everyone will inevitably get Corona at some point – and then the pandemic will be over. Nevertheless, the recovered status was shortened by the RKI, and recovered people have to be vaccinated again after three months. How does that fit together?
Yes, that was a double own goal. The RKI is first given the authority by the Federal Council to make certain decisions itself. Incidentally, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach had campaigned for this in the Federal Council. And at your first opportunity to do so, you are way off the mark technically and communicatively.
After that, the responsible minister dismisses all blame because he knew nothing about it. It’s amazing how much porcelain you can smash in such a short time. Thanks to Omikron, the recovery rate will increase particularly quickly: professional resilience and foresight would have been particularly important.
It’s amazing how much porcelain you can put in that way
can be broken in a short time. @fuldaerzeitung pic.twitter.com/5bmqLpfpOJ— Klaus Stöhr (@stohr_klaus) February 6, 2022
The Stiko launched the second booster for specific groups. Do you think that makes sense?
The decision was mainly about bridging the time until the end of the pandemic for this winter. From this point of view, a booster vaccination for the particularly vulnerable makes sense; there is data for that too. I am firmly convinced that this recommendation will be evaluated in detail before the end of the year and adapted to the new situation.
It almost sounds like you should be happy if you get infected with Covid. But with every infection comes the possibility of long-term consequences. How justified is the fear of long-Covid?
First of all: It is not a question of will or preference but an unavoidable reality that everyone will become infected with Sars-CoV-2. A long-term control strategy should have been prepared for this. Luckily there were vaccines; Incidentally, for the first time during a pandemic in human history. And you could partially delay the infections until there was enough vaccine for everyone.
Regarding Long-Covid: Yes, the disease is and will remain a concern. However, their meaning was in part significantly misinterpreted with references to clearly non-evidence-based study results. Politicians with at least partial expertise are also significantly involved in this. Even now, when reliable control studies from England, Switzerland, Germany and Denmark, for example, have been available for a long time, there is obviously a concern, even fear, about Long-Covid that apparently far exceeds the size of the problem.
These studies show that long-Covid is as common as long-term influenza and that women between the ages of 50 and 69 are more likely to be affected. The symptom exists, but fortunately at levels comparable to other respiratory diseases.
Video: Virologist Klaus Stöhr sees the end of the corona pandemic
When will the pandemic end?
We will now observe two stages. In the spring, infections will drop dramatically and incidences will plummet; unfortunately also the vaccination interest. In autumn, no further measures will be necessary, apart from a vaccination recommendation for all those who do not yet have natural immunization. You have to find out how many there are in the summer through studies that are now being prepared.
So far, whenever we thought we were on the way out of the pandemic, a new variant came along. How likely is it that another new variant will thwart your scenario?
Another communication gap: New variants were expected and are also a sign of the virus adapting to humans and a step towards the end of the pandemic. Omicron will not be the last variant, but it will certainly be the final one until the end of the endemic period. (By Daniela Petersen) *fuldaerzeitung.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA
