“The probability that the SARS-CoV-2 delta VOC will quickly become dominant in the EU is considered very high, ” notes the report Implications for the EU / EEA on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B. 1.617.2) variant of concern of the EU agency in charge of Covid control ( ECDC ). And the study adds that the penetration of the Indian variant will make this strain responsible for ” 70% of new infections by SARS-CoV-2 in early August and 90% of infections at the end of August. August ”. All an alert that, however, has not led the Government of Pedro Sánchez to take seriously, once again, the seriousness of the variant. In Spain, Sánchez prefers to say goodbye to masks and give way to the “Spain of smiles.”
The study of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) of the EU emphasizes the severity of this strain. The report, dated June 23, clarifies that “according to the available evidence, the worrying variant (VOC) of SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) [the variant popularly known as Indian ] is a 40-60 % more transmissible than [British] alpha VOC (Β.1.1.7) and may be associated with higher risks of hospitalization ”. Furthermore, the agency notes, “there is evidence that those who have only received the first dose of a two-dose vaccination cycle are less protected against infection with the delta variant than against other variants, regardless of the type of vaccine.” Despite this, “complete vaccination provides almost equivalent protection against the delta variant.”
Rapid increase in infections
Therefore, the report notes that, “based on the estimated transmission advantage of the delta variant and using model forecasts, it is predicted that 70% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections are due to this variant. in the EU / EEA at the beginning of August and 90% of the infections at the end of August ”.
Furthermore, the study warns that “the modeling scenarios indicate that any relaxation during the summer months of the stringency of the non-pharmaceutical measures that were in place in the EU / EEA in early June could lead to a rapid increase and significant number of daily cases in all age groups , with an associated increase in hospitalizations and deaths, potentially reaching the same fall 2020 levels if no additional measures are taken ”.
Despite all this, Pedro Sánchez has insisted on defending that we are now the Spain “of smiles”. That we should start taking off the mask outdoors because, apparently, we have defeated the virus again, as he said last year around the same time. And it has done so with such dedication that even the penetration data of the Indian variant are different if you read the Spanish statistics than if you look at the data that the laboratories publish in the GISAID observer.
Thus, international databases already indicated this past Monday that this variant accounts for 20.9% of all new infections in Spain. Despite this, data from the Ministry of Health, which in reality must be drawn from the same virus sequencing laboratories that are collected in GISAID, only recognize 2.7% of cases with the possibility of reaching specific sites to overcome the 10%.
The ECDC does not skimp on alerts: “The probability that the SARS-CoV-2 delta VOC will quickly become dominant in the EU / EEA is considered very high,” he says. “There is a very high probability that there will be an increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections in the community,” he adds.
Sequencing protocol
The most striking thing is that all the reports -GISAID, ECDC and the Ministry of Health-, in theory, drink from the same data. The difference in the recognition of the advance of the Indian variant of Covid, thus, has no scientific explanation. The Ministry of Health’s own sequencing protocol includes on page 4 the explanation of the mechanism for advertising the evolution data of the different variants of the coronavirus: “The National Center for Microbiology will be responsible for communicating the sequencing results to international surveillance agencies (WHO, ECDC). The laboratories that carry out sequencing will deposit the virus sequences in the international GISAID database ”.
In other words, Health knows the data of the laboratories in charge of investigating the progress of the virus strains. Moreover, those same data are the ones that must be deposited in the GISAID database. That same protocol on page 5 states the following: “Any laboratory that performs sequencing has the obligation to send the results of this analysis to the public health of the corresponding autonomous community, to guarantee the integration of sequencing with epidemiological information.”
Translated: GISAID and Health data should not be differentiated. But the truth is that the GISAID statistics for Spain and the ECDC alerts do not even remotely coincide with those of the Ministry of Health’s variant updates. And coincidentally, those of Health clearly favor the political theses of the Government of Pedro Sánchez.
Thus, GISAID awarded Spain this past Monday a weight of the Indian variant (delta) over the total of 20.9%. What’s more, it offers it as stable data after analyzing the evolution in the last four weeks. And in the latest update report on the evolution of the variants of the Ministry of Health, of June 28, on the contrary, this data is not provided even remotely. In that report, on page 1, it includes the following comment: “Delta variant (B.1.617.2): Majority in India and the United Kingdom. Probably more transmittable. The first signs in the United Kingdom indicate a higher probability of entry. Slight decrease in vaccine efficacy with two doses, more pronounced with a single dose ”. And he adds the national quantification: “In Spain, the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) has been increasing its percentage in random samples until reaching 2.7% in week 22 (with preliminary information on sequencing in random samples in SiViEs).
However, its distribution is very irregular so that, although its presence is still very low or null in some communities, in other communities it progresses rapidly, reaching percentages even higher than 10% in random samplings ”.
