EconomyDiapers, beer and bike accidents: How to know if...

Diapers, beer and bike accidents: How to know if a recession is coming

Economists often spend much of their time estimating the relationships between different events in an attempt to explain . Sometimes, curiosity leads them to observe that when diaper sales drop, it’s because families are skimping so much that there could be an economic crisis brewing.

But the diaper index is not the rarest thing in terms of recession indicators, there are many and very varied.

Around the world, fears about a recession are growing stronger. Here are some of the rarer indices looking to predict a recession and current data tied to them.

Tinder’s index?

People start looking for first dates because they start to feel more alone. The last quarter of 2008, for example, was the busiest period for the dating site, just before the financial crisis in the United States.

The data

Tinder and Bumble, the two most popular dating apps, ranked third in terms of increase in consumer spending, in the United States, between the first and second quarters of 2022. Tinder, in fact, is the third application where consumers spend the most in the world, according to data from the Top Apps&Games Market Pulse Rankings report by .

Skyscraper Index

The economist Andrew Lawrence proposed this indicator in 1999, based on the idea that, after the completion of large real estate projects, such as skyscrapers, a recession arrives. Just as it happened in the crisis of 1929, when the Chrysler buildings and the Empire State Building were completed in New York.

The data

At the end of 2021, the Merdeka 118 tower in Malaysia, the second largest building in the world, was completed. In addition, the narrowest building in the world, the Steinway in New York, has also just been built.

The bike index

The high prices of fuels and the low expectations of families can encourage the use of the bicycle as an alternative transport. The consequence of this decision is an increase in cyclist accidents in previous or recessionary times.

The data

In 2021, the number of pedestrians killed increased 13% annually and the number of bicyclists killed in crashes rose 5% annually, the largest increases since 1981 and 1980, respectively, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said. Traffic on Highways (NHTSA).

diapers index

This concept is based on the fact that, to save money, parents try to change babies’ diapers fewer times.

The data

In its latest quarterly report, Procter & Gamble saw its share prices fall as its earnings and sales growth forecasts were lower than expected. The leading company in sales of diapers with the Pampers brand estimates that consumption will drop due to the effects of inflation.

beer index

It is one of the most intuitive, because in the absence of money, households can restrict the intake of alcoholic beverages, especially in bars and restaurants. Thus, beer sales can be a “thermometer” for countries with high consumption, such as the cases of Mexico or Germany and even the United States.

The data

Recently, Japan found it necessary to launch a contest to encourage alcohol consumption in bars and restaurants, with the aim of boosting the industry and returning to collecting the level of taxes that existed before the COVID pandemic.

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