BBVA Research estimates that there will be an improvement due to the recovery in demand and productive activity in the first months of the year.
The growth of the first quarter of the Colombian economy could be between -1.3% and -0.9% year-on-year, according to a projection by BBVA Research, thanks to the recovery in demand and productive activity in February and March as the The effects of the quarantines located in January were less negative than expected.
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This result is obtained from the new BBVA GDP Tracker indicator for Colombia, which is based on projection models in real time, taking into account a set of economic variables published by other institutions and, also, the transactions in BBVA that are identified towards purchases consumption and investment.
The group explained that the indicator is based on eleven variables of economic activity, within which the two Big data indicators are used. “With this indicator it is possible to make real-time forecasts of economic activity and, especially, of GDP that will be published next Friday,” said Mauricio Hernández, economist at BBVA Research in Colombia.
As for the Economic Monitoring Indicator (ISE), which fell 4.3% in January and 3.5% in February 2021, it could have a positive variation of between 3.9% and 5.1% year-on-year for March , so it would be the first positive annual growth of the ISE since February 2020.
BBVA Research also revealed that its projection for Colombia’s economic growth for the entire year 2021 is 5.5%. This result would be due to the economic recovery in the United States and good oil prices.
For 2022 the variation is estimated at 4.8%, reaching the prepandemic production level by the end of this year.
