Rogelio Ramírez de la O, Secretary of the Treasury, delivered to the Congress of the Union the for 2023.
The document contains not only what is expected for economic growth in Mexico, but also the scenario under which this is expected to occur. Below we present the 15 most relevant data of the Economic Package 2023, which include the General Criteria of Economic Policy, the initiative of the Law of Income of the Federation (ILIF) and the Budget Project of Expenditures of the Federation (PPEF).
1. Before breaking down and going into the details of the 2023 Economic Package, there are three dates to take into account: October 20 is when the Chamber of Deputies must approve the Income Law. On October 31 at the latest, the Income Law must be in the Senate and November 15 is when the Expenditure Law must be in the Lower House at the latest.
2. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the Mexican economy will grow 3% next year, a level higher than the 2.4% that it expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at the end of 2022.
3. The agency in charge of managing the nation’s money expects inflation to close 2023 at 3.2% and the Bank of Mexico’s reference interest rate to be at 8.5% and the exchange rate at 20.6 pesos per dollar.
4. The Treasury expects to collect 4.6 trillion pesos (bp) in taxes (56% of total revenue), out of a total of 8.3 bp that will be generated by the public sector.
5. Regarding tax collection, the SHCP expects to collect 2.5 bp of ISR and 1.4 bp more of VAT.
6. For that year, no fiscal miscellany was proposed. However, an adjustment will be made to the tax burden based on inflation, that is, it only includes proposals for changes to the Federal Law and Duties and the Federal Budget and Treasury Responsibility Law.
7. As far as the public debt is concerned, it will present 49.4% of the GDP.
8. The Treasury projects 1.87 million barrels of crude oil per day in oil production on average for 2023, with an estimated average price of 68.7 dollars per barrel for next year; as well as income for 826,492 million pesos (mdp) generated by Pemex and transfers from the Mexican Oil Fund for 487,742 mdp.
9. For next year, the government estimates an expense of 8.3 bp, of which 6.6 bp will be used for pensions and retirement, the financial cost of the debt and transfers to the states for participations and contributions.
10. In 2023, 1.7 bp will be earmarked for the payment of pensions and life retirement benefits from the federal government, including those granted by the Ministry of Welfare, which represents 20.4% of the federal budget.
11. For the payment of the public debt and the debts of the previous fiscal year, it is expected to allocate 882,976 million pesos.
12. In the line of participations for the states, it is projected to allocate 1.2 bp, while for the contributions to the states 924,331 million pesos will go.
13. After fulfilling its obligations, the secretariat headed by Rogelio Ramírez de la O will have 1.7 bp, 19% of total net spending.
14. For the next year, the federal government plans to spend 3.9 billion pesos on social development, with an increase of 4% in health, and 12.7% in spending on social protection.
15. Of the priority programs of the federal government, in 2023 the main five are: pension for the elderly, pension for people with disabilities, girls and boys, young people building the future and guaranteed prices.