EconomyFinancialHappy new year: these are the 16 events to...

Happy new year: these are the 16 events to follow in 2022

After the turmoil of the last two years, the consensus among analysts is that 2022 should be a calmer year, the year of the long-awaited recovery. But as happened in 2021, unexpected events could change the economic future of the coming year. The emergence of new variants of Covid-19, uncontrolled inflation, an increase in international fuel prices and the disruption of global supply chains are factors that are in the air and that threaten the performance of companies and the global economy during 2022.

But beyond these events that concern all sectors, there are other very specific events that must not be lost sight of during the following year, either due to the economic, fiscal or social impact they may have. These are the 16 events to follow in 2022.

1. Electrical reform.

The bill could begin to be discussed next January, with the convocation of an open parliament in the Chamber of Deputies, the place of origin. The reform of President López Obrador would totally change the dynamics of the electricity market, would convert the state-owned CFE into a body with legal and budgetary independence, and would cancel all current contracts with private companies.

2. Buying Deer Park.

The US authorities have approved the purchase of the Deer Park refinery by Pemex, but the agreement between the state oil company and Shell has yet to be defined. Operational details are not yet available, nor has it been established whether Pemex will fully take care of the administration and operation of the refinery. This refinery, and the new one in Dos Bocas, are the great projects of the current administration to achieve the longed for energy self-efficiency.

3. Pemex and its new tax dynamics.

Next year, Pemex will have the lowest tax burden in recent years, as a result of a presidential decree. The oil company should show better numbers, also supported by the expectation of a better price of the Mexican export mix.

4. Recover the aviation security category.

In May, the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) downgraded Mexico to Category 2 of the International Aviation Safety Assessment Program (IASA). The degradation of Mexico’s air safety, which went from Category 1 to Category 2, implies that national airlines cannot add more routes, frequencies or planes to the United States, with which the capacity of Mexican companies was frozen towards the country neighbor. The government hopes to return to Category 1 this year.

5. The Aeroméxico audience.

For the restructuring of Aeroméxico there is a very busy final stretch. Following approval of the exit financing debt and equity commitment letters, the Bankruptcy Court set a plan confirmation hearing for January 18. From there, and while the next shareholders’ meeting takes place, the necessary votes must be obtained to give the green light to the reorganization plan, no later than February 28, 2022, and which must be ratified by the judge of the Court of the Southern District of New York, Shelley Chapman. Afterwards, several milestones that are pre-established from the confirmation hearing, such as the capitalization of liabilities, among others, must take place to formally declare that the company emerged from Chapter 11.

6. Assignment of new places in the IFT.

On February 28 the term of Adolfo Cuevas as interim president of the IFT will end, leaving the organization with only four commissioners, when there should be seven. This will affect the powers of the IFT to issue resolutions.

7. National Register of Mobile Telephone Users.

This is the name given to the project for the creation of a database that contains the information of legal entities that hire a mobile phone line in Mexico, with the aim of helping the authorities in Mexico in the prevention and prosecution of crimes . The register, also known as Panaut, came into force on April 16, 2021 with the publication of the reform to the Federal Telecommunications and Broadcasting Law. Since then, it has been criticized by different organizations, for the requirement to provide biometric data, considered sensitive. In 2022, the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation must decide whether to accept or reject the constitutional controversy that the IFT undertook to annul the creation of this registry.

8. The new streaming platform for Televisa and Univisión.

It is expected that during the first quarter of 2022, Televisa will formally launch the streaming platform that it will develop together with Univision and with which both companies plan to attract the attention of the Latin American audience.

9. Recovery in the supply of semiconductors.

The chip shortage has driven the dynamics of the auto industry crazy: plants have had to stop production of the vehicles, reducing the inventory of units on sales floors and raising prices. Analysts and several company executives foresee that the lack of semiconductors, which began in December 2020, will last during the first half of 2022. Will the supply recover in the second half of the year?

10. Discrepancy between Mexico, the US and Canada.

Mexico requested the United States, via letter, to hold consultations to discuss the methodology that will be followed to calculate the percentage of regional content of light vehicles and passenger trucks produced and marketed in North America. The new T-MEC establishes, among other requirements, that for passenger vehicles and light trucks to be considered “originating in the region”, the “essential parts” of the models must meet a Regional Content Value (VCR) of 75% as of July 1, 2023. Currently the required VCR is 69%. But the way to calculate this percentage has generated controversy among the three countries that signed the agreement. This discrepancy should be resolved in 2022.

11. Negotiation of incentives for electric vehicles and batteries.

A proposed $ 12,500 electric vehicle tax credit, which is being considered by the US Congress and which would include $ 4,500 for cars made in the United States by unionized workers, effective 2027, was qualified as “discriminatory” by the Secretary of Economy. Mexico does not rule out resorting to an international panel, within the framework of the T-MEC, against the tax incentives of the United States for manufacturers of electric cars in that country that would affect the local automotive industry. Or even establish tariff retaliation against products made in the United States if the legal proposal is approved.

12. Unlock the regulation of cannabis.

The regulation on the recreational use of cannabis must be unlocked during 2022. The Senate must establish regulations for the adult use of the plant and also for its industrial use, which according to experts in the sector, will be crucial to detonate an industry that could reach a market value of 5,000 million pesos, according to industry figures. The change that is required, according to the experts, is the difference between hemp and cannabis. The first contains less than 1% THC, which is the psychoactive component of the plant, which means that it does not cause any effect on the nervous system. Marijuana does contain high levels of THC and it also has some medicinal properties, which are already used in medications to treat diseases such as epilepsy.

13. The effects of inflation in mass consumer companies.

Inflation stalks consumer companies. From self-service chains to department stores could suffer the effects of high prices: a decrease in consumption that would encourage the recovery of companies, especially departmental ones, which have been struggling to level their sales, after being closed for about eight months during 2020. For now, the gap that the pandemic opened compared to 2019 is shortened and, from January to November, the department stores and supermarkets that make up the National Association of Self-Service and Department Stores (ANTAD) reported sales of 1,169 million pesos, an increase of 1.3% compared to the same period of 2020, when they amounted to 1,153 million pesos.

14. The first year of teleworking in Mexico.

January 11, 2022 marks one year of the regulation of telework in Mexico. By presidential decree, article 311 and chapter XII Bis were added to the Federal Labor Law, which recognizes remote work as a new work modality. Now companies are waiting for the development of a regulatory framework that specifies or limits the obligations they have in order to comply with the law.

15. Reform of the Outdoor Advertising Law, in the pipeline.

The government of Mexico City sent an initiative to the local congress to create the new Foreign Advertising Law, with which it seeks to strengthen the legal framework for advertisements. It seeks to remove billboards from rooftops, in addition to sanctioning those who incite gender violence. Its approval could occur in 2022.

16. The regularization of outsourcing in government agencies

The reform, which has already been published in the DOF and entered into force on April 24, prohibits the subcontracting of personnel, but allows the subcontracting of specialized services. Since then, companies have had to regularize hired personnel via outsourcing or insourcing. The decree indicates that, in the case of agencies and institutions of the Federal Public Administration, the new provisions of the reform will come into force in 2022.

Autonomous driving, a promise that fades in big cities?

The autonomous vehicle will reduce traffic and road accidents. But its massification in Mexico could take up to two more decades.

Good news: For the second week the 100% gasoline subsidy continues

From October 22 to 28, the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) will not be charged on Magna, Premium and diesel fuels.

Aeromexico reports profit for the first time since the pandemic began

During the third quarter of the year, the airline registered 21,401 million pesos in income, which left a net profit of 210.8 million pesos.

"The little skull" is ahead of your pocket: 100% subsidy returns to Magna and...

From Saturday October 15 to Friday October 21, the Ministry of Finance will not charge the federal IEPS tax on gasoline and diesel, there will also be additional incentives for importers and producers.

China displaces India as the largest supplier of cars for Mexico

The Asian giant surpassed India as Mexico's largest supplier of vehicles thanks to the arrival of new Chinese brands and to GM increasing the sale of Chinese-made models.

More