All decisions in the economy have a cost: The collection of income through taxes registered decreases from May to last August, mainly due to the cessation of charging the Special Tax on Production and Services ( IEPS ) on gasoline.
Figures from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) detail that in the reference period, tax revenue reported a drop of -0.5% compared to the same period last year. If the collection is reviewed month by month, it falls from May to September.
Specialists from the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) considered that the slowdown in collection is the effect of a lower rate of economic growth than that proposed in the 2022 economic package, and granting the gasoline subsidy , ceasing to charge the IEPS for each liter of fuel, and that will cost more than 300,000 million pesos (mdp) at the end of the year.
“We are seeing a weak year, and that comes to affect the tax income that the treasury obtains due to this stagnation or slowdown that companies have, without a doubt something that comes to further support this decrease is the gasoline subsidy. As long as this subsidy is maintained, the collection will have to suffer this decrease,” said Alejandro Hernández, president of the IMEF.
On the contrary, ISR is surprisingly good, almost 15% higher than in January-August of last year, “here it is due to collection efficiency, the pressure on certain types of taxpayers,” said Mario Correa, president of the National Committee for Economic Studies of the IMEF.
The VAT comes with growth of 2.7%, and its collection reflects a lot how consumption is moving in the economy and “it seems that for now it is not so bad,” Correa considered.
“Yes, there is concern to see, how the collection will close the year. We are entering the fourth quarter of the year, it is when we could begin to see how production reacts to the changes that have taken place in the global monetary environment, especially with interest rates that are rising very fast”, commented the economist.
“We think of the United States, which is perhaps what is going to affect us the most internally, if in this fourth quarter we see that there are many companies, especially industrial ones, that are highly inventoried, that are putting pressure on their finances and that are going to restrict their production levels that could also affect us, to end the last quarter badly, and that would affect tax collection”, Mario Correa concluded.
