EconomyLAST MINUTE: Wall Street records its worst quarterly streak...

LAST MINUTE: Wall Street records its worst quarterly streak since the 2009 crisis

The main stock market indices on Wall Street closed the third quarter with the same negative trend that has been shown throughout the year. The factors that have affected them are the massive confinements in China due to the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the accelerated increase in inflation, the rise in interest rates in the world and, finally, the uncertainty about a possible global economic recession. .

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 finished down 0.9% and 2.6%, respectively, on the quarter. The previous data implied a record of three negative quarters, its worst streak for the same period from January to March 2009. On Friday they closed at 10,575.62 and 3,585.62 units, their lowest level since November and September 2020, respectively.

On the other hand, the Dow Jones industrial index ended at 28,725.51 units, its lowest level since November 2020 and a negative variation of 6.7% compared to last June 30, with which it accumulates three quarters down, its worst rally since 2015.

“Market uncertainty is high, but how much? Geopolitical fears have eased since their surge around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but have been replaced by more entrenched and global economic policy uncertainty. Interest rates and bond yields are soaring, fears of a recession are rising, and the US dollar is rampant against world currencies,” said Ben Laidler, Global Strategist for eToro.

In Mexico, the main stock market indicator of the Mexican Stock Exchange (S&P/BMV IPC) ended this Friday at 44,571.88 points, a drop of 6.2% in the quarter, while the FTSE BIVA closed at 930.81 units, a drop of 5.6%. in that same period. The above data places the BMV and FTSE BIVA index with its second quarterly drop and its worst level since February 2021.

“The world stock markets presented negative movements, returning to the cautious scenario. Investors remain attentive to the economic agenda in the US, where the GDP revision will be announced. Lastly, the market is beginning to pay attention to the corporate reporting season with the figures from Nike and Micron, to which special attention will be given in the face of possible new cuts to the expectations of the issuers”, said Monex analysts.

The most famous cryptocurrency in the world ended the quarter at $19,401.0 per bitcoin, an intraday drop of 0.95% and a growth of 3.6% compared to the second quarter of 2022.

“It has been a very eventful week in bitcoin, which has failed to make a sustainable run in either direction despite attempts in both. We may be seeing a floor forming a bit below the early summer lows around 17,500, although that will largely depend on risk appetite not crashing once again, which has a lot of potential for do,” said Edward Moya, Senior Analyst at OANDA.

Oil breaks positive streak

After registering increases for nine consecutive quarters, the price of oil fell. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed the third quarter down 24.54% at $79.81 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent ended down 23.41%, trading at $87.93 a barrel.

“The downward pressures were due to an increase in concerns about a possible recession in the United States and Europe, as a consequence of higher inflation and increases in interest rates globally, which could reduce the demand for energy”, said Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base.

Other factors that pushed down the price of oil were the strengthening of the US dollar and increases in interest rates. Likewise, it is feared that China’s economy will slow down more than expected, since its country still has a zero COVID policy, which leads it to implement strong confinement measures in some regions; meanwhile, concerns about the real estate sector in that country continue.

The peso remains stable against the dollar

The peso closed the third quarter with an appreciation of 0.04% trading around 20.1271 pesos per dollar, with the exchange rate reaching a maximum of 20.8321 pesos on July 12 and a minimum of 19.7533 pesos on August 12, according to Bank data. of Mexico (Banxico).

Among the main crosses of the dollar, the Mexican peso was the only currency that gained ground, given a strengthening of the US currency of 6.07%, according to the weighted index (DXY), being the largest quarterly advance of the dollar since the fourth quarter 2016, when the market speculated that the Fed would raise its interest rate again after an initial increase in December 2015 and when Donald Trump won the presidential elections in the United States.

The peso, for its part, remains far from its worst valuations and has even had a small positive performance so far this year, argued Ramsé Gutiérrez, co-director of investments at Franklin Templeton Mexico, who added that one of the factors What has influenced the strength of the dollar is that the Fed has reacted faster than other countries by raising rates to alleviate inflation.

However, Banxico, for its part, has gotten ahead of itself by raising rates earlier and, at least, at the same pace as the Fed.

In the quarter, the emerging currencies that ended with significant depreciation were the Argentine peso, with 15%; the Hungarian forint, with 12.43%; the South African rand, with 10.04%; the Russian ruble, with 9.87%; the Colombian peso, with 9.84% and the Turkish lira, with 9.67%.

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