Tech UPTechnologyMath to predict terrorist attacks

Math to predict terrorist attacks

Pedro Pinto and his colleagues at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (Switzerland) have developed an algorithm that ranges from detecting the origin of terrorist attacks to tracing the spread of epidemics . Computer simulations of telephone conversations during the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have served to put it to the test, as reported in the journal Physical Review Letters .

According to Plinio, “by reconstructing the exchange of messages during the attack, our system obtained the names of three possible suspects, one of whom turned out to be the mastermind of the attacks, according to the official investigation.” The algorithm can also be used to find the primary source of an infectious disease, such as cholera. In that case, the researchers used modeling of river networks and human transport networks to find where the first cases of infection appeared.

The method would also be useful in responding to terrorist attacks, such as the 1995 sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway, in which poisonous gas in the city’s underground tunnels killed 13 people and injured about 1,000. . “Our algorithm would not need detectors at all stations, since one sample would be enough to quickly identify the origin of the attack,” says Pinto.

Furthermore, with this method you can find the source of all kinds of rumors that circulate in a network , with a limited number of members of that network. Thus, assuming someone finds a rumor about themselves, that it has spread on Facebook, and that it has been sent to 500 people, their friends, or even friends of their friends, the person who started it could be found. the rumor. This method can also be used to identify the origin of a spam message, or a computer virus, using only a limited number of sensors within the network.

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