Omikron in Germany: "There is no wave, but a wall" – Drosten sees a "special problem"

Omikron will let the corona numbers rise again in Germany – experts agree on that. Christian Drosten sees a “special problem” compared to other countries.

Munich – “There is no wave, but a wall,” wrote Christian Endt on Twitter. The data journalist of the time also posted a graphic. It shows the possible course of the seven-day incidence in Germany. It is feared that Omikron could be the dominant Corona * variant in this country by Christmas. The result? A rapid increase in the number of infections. “By the end of the year, the incidence may approach the 1000 mark,” Endt explained of his model.

Omikron in Germany: Experts fear a new wave in January at the latest

Omikron is on the advance – not only in South Africa and other European countries, but also in Germany. Experts agree that the variant will also be dominant in this country. The only question is when. In its current weekly report, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) stated that only 112 Omikron cases had been confirmed by December 14. A comparatively small number. However, the development is “still very worrying,” according to the RKI. The number of cases in Germany would decrease too slowly in view of the impending Omikron wave.

Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) declared on Friday (December 17) that he was going out before a “massive fifth wave” in Germany. This fifth wave can already be observed in other European countries. Great Britain and Denmark have reported multiple daily records for the number of new infections * in the past few days. Omikron already accounts for a larger proportion of the cases there.

Germany is heading for the “Omikron wall”: Drosten sees a “special problem”

So now the forecast tweeted by Endt about the “Omikron wall” in Germany. “I fully agree with this thread and article,” replied virologist Christian Drosten via Twitter. Compared to Great Britain, Germany has the “special problem” of many unvaccinated and unrecovered people over the age of 60 – “the vaccine pick”. Germany is therefore “not ready for the endemic situation,” wrote Drosten.

In his NDR podcast “Coronavirus Update”, the Charité virologist had previously given a gloomy Omicron forecast *. “From January we will have a problem with Omikron in Germany,” said Drosten. It cannot be ruled out that there is already a situation around Christmas that is “frightening”, he said. This makes the vaccinations all the more important and the more shocking falsified vaccination records in the care sector *.

Omikron in Germany: “Concentrating an extremely large number of cases in a few weeks can become a problem”

It has not yet been clarified to what extent an infection with Omikron also leads to a severe course of Covid-19 *. From South Africa it was initially said that many courses were milder than with the delta variant. “At the individual level, the risk posed by Omikron should continue to be acceptable to many,” said biostatistician Tom Wenseleers from the University of Leuven at the time . For the health system, however, it could become a problem if, as the models currently show, a large number of people become infected with Omikron at the same time.

“Even if one assumes that a significantly lower proportion of people have to be hospitalized at Omikron than at Delta, the concentration of an extremely large number of cases in a few weeks can become a problem,” explained modeler Michael Meyer-Hermann from the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research in Braunschweig.

His colleague Dirk Brockmann from Berlin’s Humboldt University fears that the omicron * wave can hardly be stopped. It is now a matter of “flattening the curve so that not too many people get sick at the same time,” he said of the time . Due to the rapid expansion of the variant, however, you have to act quickly. Because, according to Brockmann: “Once the wave arrives, we don’t have any more time.” (Ph) * Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA

List of rubric lists: © Rolf Vennenbernd / dpa