NewsStatistics professor fears the infrastructure will “fail” - up...

Statistics professor fears the infrastructure will “fail” – up to 150,000 people are being quarantined every day?

The omicron variant continues to spread. In Germany, the number of cases is still limited, but what happens if the new mutant claims her victims here too?

Stuttgart / Munich – It is probably the proverbial calm before the storm. While the number of infections and incidences due to the Omikron variant * of the coronavirus * are skyrocketing in many European countries, the situation in Germany remains comparatively calm. The feared wave of infections is still a long time coming, but it is certain that it will not avoid the Federal Republic forever. In Great Britain, 100,000 new infections in one day were reported for the first time on Wednesday (December 22nd), in London and other cities there is a shortage of staff * everywhere.

Corona: After Denmark and Great Britain – Germany is also threatened with a horror scenario

The critical infrastructure in particular, such as the police, fire brigade and hospitals, is suffering from the current wave of infections. In the worst case scenario, this could also threaten Germany. The variant is currently also spreading in neighboring Denmark, where around 10,000 new cases were reported every day shortly before Christmas. Since all positive samples are tested for the mutant in Denmark, the country offers one of the best data for the distribution of the variant in Europe.

If you extrapolate the new infections in Denmark (5.8 million inhabitants) from around 10,000 daily cases to our population, that would be the dramatic number of 150,000, four times as many as there are currently,” calculates the statistics professor Christian Hesse in the Bild newspaper and thus outlines a potential horror scenario for Germany. Because in addition to the infected, the closest contact persons would also have to be in quarantine, which would increase the number of those affected a lot.

Omikron variant: threat to critical infrastructure

The contact persons are usually contacted by their responsible health department after they become aware of an infection. As Hesse explains, an average of five close contacts are made during the incubation period per infection. According to the statistics professor, this emerged from a survey of regional newspapers at the 380 German health authorities. “With 150,000 infected people, that would mean three quarters of a million people in quarantine.” If this level were to remain in place for five days, 3.75 million people would have to be quarantined during this period – a gigantic number.

“With these high numbers of people who are newly infected or have to go into self-isolation, a considerable part of the critical infrastructure in our country would come to a standstill,” says Hesse with certainty.

Omikron in Germany: food supply guaranteed

In order to prevent such a scenario, numerous industries in Germany are already preparing for the potential loss of their employees. “We can assure you that we as an industry are doing everything in our power to prevent the spread of the coronavirus and now the Omikron variant through preventive operational measures,” assured Christoph Minhoff, managing director of the German Food Association. The health of employees in particular must be protected, Minhoff pleaded in Bild , “so that food production can also be maintained.”

As at the beginning of the corona pandemic in spring 2020, Minhoff promises that the failures will not inevitably lead to supply problems. Long-life foods such as pasta, frozen products or canned food are sufficiently pre-produced and can be accessed at any time. He also points out that in many industries there is more than just one provider, so that possible delivery problems can be dealt with at any time. ( to )

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