The main selective of the Spanish Stock Exchange, the Ibex 35 , has shown a very positive trend throughout all of 2021. Especially if one takes into account the collapses that last 2020 experienced as a result of the impact of the coronavirus health crisis. Despite this, in the last week the index has fallen by around 2.5% and in the second half of the year it will have to face important challenges on the international scene.
As three market experts have explained to this newspaper, the main threats to the Ibex 35 are the direction that central banks may take, the success of the vaccination campaign and how evolutions and management and finally the appearance of new strains or variants of the virus. And it is that currently the selective Spanish struggles to maintain the psychological level of 9,000 points.
Sergio Ávila, an analyst at IG Markets, remarks that «this year we have the central bankers meeting in Jackson Hole in August, where it is expected that the melon of the debate on tapering will definitely open, which can make people even more nervous. Investors Also, as the summer season progresses, inflation data may continue to rise, raising more questions among investors.
For their part, Investing.com analysts point out that “the Ibex 35, like the rest of the European indices and Wall Street, will be highly conditioned by the Fed’s next steps regarding the possible announcement in the coming months of the withdrawal of stimuli, as well as the advance in the rise in interest rates. In fact, we have seen how today the markets have opened with severe falls after closing in negative on Friday before the bomb words of James Bullard.
Gisela Turazzini, co-founder of Blackbird, indicates that “the markets in general have had a very positive behavior, due in part to the success of the vaccination and the ratification by central banks and governments in promoting the recovery with stimuli. In this sense, we see an important cyclical ratification, which should continue, despite the correction we are experiencing. The risks, as we can see, come mainly from the messages from the Fed that monetary normalization could anticipate tapering, something that the market wants to avoid at all costs.
Economic recovery
It must be taken into account that as the health crisis also affected the economy, the stock markets and markets increasingly acted more in line. For this reason, the experts also highlight that one of the factors that will most mark the evolution of the Stock Market throughout the second semester is the economic recovery , which is in turn closely linked to the success of the vaccination campaign and the appearance of new strains.
«For the rest of the year, the determining factors will undoubtedly be the next steps of the central banks in terms of monetary policy, as well as progress in the vaccination process against the coronavirus and that we do not see the pandemic worsen with the new and dangerous variants . All of this will be decisive for a much-needed economic recovery, and to be able to close the financial year 2021 with good figures, “add Investing.com analysts.
“In addition, as the summer season progresses, inflation data may continue to rise, raising more concerns among investors. It is true that the Ibex 35 benefits from the fact that there is economic growth in the summer, especially for tourist companies, and that eventual increases in inflation can cause spikes in the yields of the bonds that benefit banks, ”explains Ávila.
