The electrical reform, whose public discussion begins today, can cause an increase of over 1,000% in the use of some fossil fuels, according to a study published a few days ago by the United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
The document, he says, “is not a forecast of the future effects of the amendments [to the regulation]”, but instead simulates the behavior of the Mexican electricity market in a period of 12 months – ended on August 31st – in a supposed in which the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) already had the power to increase the use of its power generation plants and to guarantee their maximum use, as stated in the reform initiative sent by the presidency and which is currently now in committees of the Chamber of Deputies.
The study proposes three different scenarios, in all of them a prioritization of the power plants owned by the State is taken as a basis, but in different magnitude. In the first, he projects a scenario in which the minimum level of production of the CFE plants is guaranteed and the last one maximizes their use and gives less priority to the contracts of Independent Power Producers (PIE) and to the rest of the private generators.
In all of them, according to their calculations, the use of fossil fuels in the country is increasing in a general way –and in some cases exponentially–, mainly fuel oil, a by-product of refining produced by Pemex and whose use, according to statements of officials, it has been prioritized in this administration to create a supply chain between the two state companies. The government has stopped making transparent the data that would allow knowing specifically how its use has behaved.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory states that the use of fuel oil could increase by 823% in its most conservative scenario and by up to 1,109% in a maximum scenario.
In scenario 2, the researchers propose a scenario in which both the CFE plants and the Independent Power Producers are guaranteed a minimum level of production and the remaining capacity is determined based on an economic order, that is, that is, with higher utilization in plants with lower costs.
The agency also proposes a significant increase in the use of coal, between 47.2 and 129.6%. The state-owned CFE has three coal plants in the country, whose use has been reduced in recent years, due to the rules established by the 2013 reform that prioritizes the use of plants with the lowest variable costs – mainly wind and solar –. Coal is one of the fuels that supported the industrialization of economies, but that many countries with environmental goals have begun to minimize or ban.
Although the presidential reform does not propose to take out of office the plants that work through solar or wind energy, it leaves almost at the end of the row of use the assets owned by private initiative, which has taken the lead in the construction of this type of technology. The national electricity company has lagged behind in the race to produce wind or solar energy, as it has based the growth of its generation park on natural gas for years.
The study by the US agency indicates that the reduction in the use of this type of technology would be inevitable. In its maximum scenario –in which the CFE plants are taken to their highest generation–, up to 90.93% of the wind and solar generation capacity in Mexico would be left out.
“The proposed or approved amendments to Mexico’s electric unit commitment and shipment rules will likely increase the variable costs of electricity production in all scenarios. The increase could be added to electricity subsidies or to consumers”, says the study, whose main authors are Riccardo Bracho and Omar José Guerra Fernández. Academics were not immediately available for comment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the United States says that the increase in generation costs could be between 31.7 and 52.5%.
And along with the increase in the use of fossil fuels, the country would significantly increase the emissions of the main greenhouse gases. The generation of carbon dioxide, says the agency, would increase between 29.4 and 73.5%.
From a base scenario in which Mexico generates around 112.791 million tons of carbon dioxide in a year, the reform could lead to the emission of up to 186.308 million tons. and of the main organisms of the sector, that assure that the reform could cause an increase of around 50% in the sending of polluting gases to the atmosphere.
