The World Bank (WB) on Tuesday raised its global growth forecast to 5.6% for 2021, marking the biggest recovery from a recession in 80 years, thanks to stimulus measures from the United States and faster expansion from China. but held back by “very uneven” access to COVID-19 vaccines.
“Although we welcome the signs of global recovery, the pandemic continues to impose poverty and inequality on people in developing countries around the world,” said David Malpass, president of the World Bank, when presenting the new semi-annual report on economic perspectives. .
In the case of Latin America, the World Bank foresees a 5.2% rebound this year, above the 3.2% forecasts estimated six months ago, although it clarifies that it will depend on “moderate progress in vaccination, the relaxation of restriction measures and an increase in the prices of raw materials “, among other factors.
The two large regional economies will show solid expansions: Brazil will grow 4.5% this year, thanks to a new round of direct payments; while Mexico will do so by 5%, driven by the expected boom in demand from the United States in the manufacturing and services sector.
The entity’s latest World Economic Outlook report showed an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to forecasts made in January, before Joe Biden assumed the presidency of the United States and enacted a 1.9 billion dollar aid package for COVID -19.
Since then, vaccines have been much more widely distributed in the United States and some other wealthy countries, boosting their production, while forecasts fall short for emerging and low-income nations.
“This recovery is uneven and largely reflects strong rebounds in some of the major economies – notably the United States, due to significant fiscal support – amid highly uneven access to vaccines,” the World Bank noted in the report. .
Many emerging and developing economies are experiencing high numbers of COVID-19 cases, obstacles to vaccination and the withdrawal of relief measures, according to the bank.
By 2022, this will leave the world economy 2% below pre-pandemic forecasts, while around two-thirds of emerging economies will not yet have recovered from last year’s lost per capita income.
If the distribution of vaccines to developing countries is accelerated, world GDP growth in 2022, currently forecast at 4.3%, could reach 5%, said Ayhan Kose, an economist at the World Bank.
The World Bank’s growth forecast for the United States in 2021 rose to 6.8%, its fastest pace since 1984, due to economic support that the bank described as “unprecedented in peacetime.”
The forecast for the euro zone was raised 0.6 percentage points to 4.2%, while that of China rose 0.6 percentage points to 8.5%.
The World Bank expects emerging markets, excluding China, to grow 4.4% in 2021, a forecast that has risen by one percentage point since January.
The World Bank report also points to the risks associated with mounting inflationary pressures that will add about one percentage point to global inflation in 2021. It stated that last year’s inflation slowdown was the “mildest and shortest of any. of the five global recessions of the last 50 years “.
The report notes that market concerns about inflation could drive up borrowing costs in emerging markets and low-income countries, which are also more affected by inflation in the short term due to rising costs of borrowings. food.
