2022 looks good for companies or at least that is how they have started. During the first quarter of this year, most of the largest companies on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) performed better than analysts expected.
From January to March, of the companies that make up the S&P/BMV IPC, the main index of the Mexican stock market, 48.6% reported better than estimated; 31.4% in line with forecasts and only 20% below what was expected, according to an analysis by Monex.
“It is important to attend to the growth that companies have at the Ebitda level mainly, since greater growth in this line improves the company’s valuations and increases the potential for performance by Target Prices,” the firm details. Thus, firms that register increases of more than 5% against the estimated Ebitda level are considered positive “and could present an immediate increase in the share price.”
The companies with the greatest advances in operating flow (Ebitda) were the airport groups, which during the pandemic were among those that suffered the most. In the quarter, the Ebitda of Asur, GAP and OMA increased 130.8%, 111% and 74.4%.
According to an analysis by José Espitia, deputy director of stock market analysis at Banorte Casa de Bolsa, the airport groups were favored by a good dynamism in passenger traffic and by a strict control of costs and expenses.
In the quarter, GAP’s passenger traffic increased 70%; that of Asur, 71.4%; and that of OMA, 52%. For the three companies, their report favors favorable prospects for the remainder of 2022, according to Espitia.
The consumer companies Liverpool and Alsea were also among those that shone the most in the first quarter of 2022. In this period, Liverpool’s Ebitda increased 116% and Alsea’s grew 69%.
Liverpool benefited from increased traffic in its units, which in the same period last year had to close or maintain limited capacity due to the pandemic. “We consider that the company would continue to present positive results throughout the year, driven by the company’s commercial strategies, as well as the positive environment that prevails in consumer confidence and employment stability. Despite the inflationary environment, we believe that the consumer in this segment remains firm,” Marisol Huerta, an analyst at Ve por Más, said in a report.
Likewise, greater mobility in the face of fewer restrictions due to COVID supported an increase in sales at Alsea, which operates Starbucks, Domino’s Pizza and Vips. In addition, the company was also favored “by the reduction of waste, greater productivity in the supply chain and an increase in brands with lower sales costs, as well as lower operating expenses,” said Huerta.
negative reports
On the other side of the coin, the companies that were most affected in the first three months of 2022 were Kimberly Clark, with a 22% drop in Ebitda, and Peñoles, with -17%. Gruma, which registered an advance of 0.4%; Cemex, with 1.2% and Elektra, with 3.4%.
Although, in the first quarter, Kimberly Clark’s sales reached 12.6 billion pesos, a record for the company, its results were not positive at the Ebitda level, as it faced “a global environment of unprecedented inflation in commodity prices and raw materials that continues to impact our costs”, detailed the firm in its report.
Inflationary pressures also affected Peñoles, which together with lower sales of the metals it produces, such as silver, complicated the quarter, a challenge that it will have to face for the rest of the year, according to an analysis by Monex.
Cemex, Gruma and Elektra, although their Ebitda increased, the increase was less than the performance of the rest of the companies. And like Kimberly Clark and Peñoles, the rise in prices of raw materials, energy and problems in global supply chains affected their results.
These factors could continue to pressure companies in the following quarters, analysts agree, so the next reporting season will have to be closely watched, which will be at the end of July.
