Autumn has arrived. He did it officially or, rather, astronomically on September 22 at 9:21 p.m. PDT. Gone is a summer that, contrary to what it may seem and with several parts of the south of the Peninsula exceeding 40 degrees for several days, has not been especially hot. “It has not been the hottest month of August since the century began. There have been five hotter August months than this past ”, says José Antonio Maldonado, Meteored’s Director of Meteorology. The autumn that we have just released will be warmer than normal and with little rainfall.
The autumn of 2021 has started with a dana and torrential rains . The term dana seems to be very fashionable, but it is not always used correctly. “A dana is an acronym, of depression isolated at high levels , that is, a system of low pressures that forms at high levels and is isolated from the general atmospheric circulation. At high levels we understand about 9000 meters of altitude ”, explains Francisco Martín, meteorologist and coordinator of the RAM ( Magazine of the Amateur of Meteorology ). “Little by little this drop, without reflection, in principle, on the surface it loses altitude and is reflected on other levels, at 5000 meters, at 3000 meters, until it is even reflected on the surface.” This phenomenon is normal to occur in our latitudes and it is something important since sometimes, not always, it is associated with adverse phenomena ”. Therefore, not all heavy rain events are harmful.
As for what we can expect in the following months, in October the temperatures will be above normal in the peninsula and will be around the usual values for these dates in both archipelagos. “Temperatures, in general, will be slightly higher in most regions and rainfall will be below normal in Extremadura, in a large part of Castilla La Mancha, in Andalusia and in the Mediterranean regions”, explains José Antonio Maldonado. The expert does not rule out that on these dates there is a damage or other atmospheric phenomenon that brings significant rainfall.
” In November, temperatures are expected to be below normal in some areas of Castilla y León, the Basque Country, La Rioja, Navarra and Catalonia and will be within normal values for this month in the rest of the regions.” Regarding rainfall, these will be scarce on the Atlantic slope and, in general, throughout Spain.
Conclusion: this fall will be warmer than normal and there will be little rain.
Will we have a second Filomena this winter?
With the autumn weather forecasts it is impossible that we do not ask ourselves the million dollar question in the face of winter. Will we have a second Filomena? A squall that brings such a large amount of snow to our country?
Francisco Martín tells us that “climatologically it does not touch .” The expert explains that this type of exceptional phenomena is expected to happen, from the climatological point of view, within 50, 60 or even 100 years . However, it recognizes that it is something that cannot be predicted with exactitude with the meteorological models that are available. “Filomena was an exceptional case because it was an atypical storm that was loaded with humidity, of a subtropical type. It came from eastern North America, it came to the Canary Islands and it was loaded with supergasoline ”. With supergasoline, Martín refers to the fact that there was a lot of humidity, air that developed strong currents and instability and an “ignition match”, an atmospheric mechanism that triggers the phenomenon, such as a storm, a storm, a front or a storm. “It was an exceptional storm that met with cold air in the Peninsula.”
